[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/gop-could-cos...14933.html

Probably preaching to the choir, but the above says the "optimistic" estimate is that Ukraine could last 18 months if the Europeans greatly increased their aid. Others dispute that in the article. The article says nothing about possible Ukrainian morale collapse, which IMO is not at all out of the question.

Most likely preaching tot he choir.  NATO nations seem to have gotten the message that they need to up their defense budgets, but no matter what I am sure they assume we will be there when push comes to shove.  Not a sure bet.  Reminds me of the bad old days.

You must be older than I am :-). I don't remember a time that NATO wasn't expecting the US to respond and help contain any Russian/Warsaw Pact incursion into "Europe", basically meaning the FRG. You are quite correct that the other NATO nations assumed that if push came to shove the US would be there. They just hoped that we would indeed be willing to risk Philadelphia for Frankfurt. 

Unfortunately many forget that from the US point of view NATO provides functions beyond deterrence and common defense. NATO and the implicit guarantee of the US nuclear capability allowed us to convince the other NATO nations they didn't need their own Nuclear weapons. It didn't work with France, but everybody else did abstain. Obviously if North Korea can develop nuclear weapons, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Spain etc. could as well. That eventuality would be massively destabilizing.

The second thing that NATO has done is prevented NATO allies from fighting each other. Greece and Türkiye are often "on edge", but the fact they are both in NATO greatly reduces the odds of them fighting each other. Europe (the NATO part anyway) has had 79 years of no wars. That is some kind of a modern record. NATO also has so far kind of kept a lid on the non-NATO Balkan countries. Keeping the peace in Europe is no totally easy feat historically. The perception that another war in Europe is "unthinkable" is true at least to a great extent because these nations are allied in NATO and it is just "normal" that they at least pretend to get along.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/gop-could-cos...14933.html

Probably preaching to the choir, but the above says the "optimistic" estimate is that Ukraine could last 18 months if the Europeans greatly increased their aid. Others dispute that in the article. The article says nothing about possible Ukrainian morale collapse, which IMO is not at all out of the question.

Most likely preaching tot he choir.  NATO nations seem to have gotten the message that they need to up their defense budgets, but no matter what I am sure they assume we will be there when push comes to shove.  Not a sure bet.  Reminds me of the bad old days.

You must be older than I am :-). I don't remember a time that NATO wasn't expecting the US to respond and help contain any Russian/Warsaw Pact incursion into "Europe", basically meaning the FRG. You are quite correct that the other NATO nations assumed that if push came to shove the US would be there. They just hoped that we would indeed be willing to risk Philadelphia for Frankfurt. 

Unfortunately many forget that from the US point of view NATO provides functions beyond deterrence and common defense. NATO and the implicit guarantee of the US nuclear capability allowed us to convince the other NATO nations they didn't need their own Nuclear weapons. It didn't work with France, but everybody else did abstain. Obviously if North Korea can develop nuclear weapons, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Spain etc. could as well. That eventuality would be massively destabilizing.

The second thing that NATO has done is prevented NATO allies from fighting each other. Greece and Türkiye are often "on edge", but the fact they are both in NATO greatly reduces the odds of them fighting each other. Europe (the NATO part anyway) has had 79 years of no wars. That is some kind of a modern record. NATO also has so far kind of kept a lid on the non-NATO Balkan countries. Keeping the peace in Europe is no totally easy feat historically. The perception that another war in Europe is "unthinkable" is true at least to a great extent because these nations are allied in NATO and it is just "normal" that they at least pretend to get along.