01-23-2024, 11:22 PM
(01-23-2024, 04:04 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Sweden will join NATO soon. Erdogan isn't going to do any more negotiating IMHO, the bill sailed through parliament with his whole party supporting and he personally has not been making noise about this for a while.IMO you are correct. He is done negotiating. When and only when the US approves his F-16 upgrades, he will sign the approval. His position is inherently different than the one the US has. Once he has approved NATO membership for Sweden, he has no further leverage. There is no mechanism to reascend approval. One "yes" ends the discussion. The F-16 deal is different. The senate can approve it and then change it's mind. Erdogan has one shot, and he isn't going to waste it. No reason he should.
Quote:Hungary has to approve now, their legislature is on recess until February. Maybe Orban tries to hold out but I think they will approve eventually just like they did Finland. And if they don't, arms will be twisted. Matter of when not if.Maybe you are right. Lots of arms will be twisted. However, it depends a lot on the domestic political considerations. Both the EU and the US have no input there. It may be that Hungary will cave. IMO it is not clear that will happen. It may be stupid to us, but it may not be to them.