01-18-2024, 09:43 AM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/head-russian-...02481.html
While this unrest probably will not lead to any major disruption of the Russian war effort in Ukraine, it does show that Russia has a "minorities" problem and it isn't minor. While racism/tribalism exists in almost all nations, in Russia it has often been acknowledged by the ruling class and actually embraced as a "good thing". Certainly under the Tsars being "Russian" was a big thing and the Tsars often cloaked their aggressive wars as "spreading Russian civilization" to "uncivilized natives". It has also been universally true that for advancement in Russia ethnic minority people had to become "honorary Russians". It is also true that Russians sent to administer "uncivilized" people sometimes intermarried and created "hybrid Russians" who went to school in Russia proper. These people were often sent to government jobs in areas that were ethnically different than their own origins because they would be loyal to the state and not the inhabitants.
To it's credit, the Soviet Union on paper condemned racism. It openly accepted leaders that were minorities (Stalin). However, the reality was that the Soviet Union inflicted even worse depredations on uncooperative minority areas than the Tsars ever did. Of course, they sometimes did the same to ethnic Russians. The oppression was now both ethnically based and politically based.
With the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia "spun off" much of it's Muslim minority. Both Gorbachev and Yeltsin considered this a "good thing" as they were more trouble than they were worth. Chechnya was considered important enough to keep. The leadership firmly believed the ethnic minority republics of Ukraine and Belarus would vote to remain as part of the Russian Federation. For reasons that were partially (but not primarily) ethnically based, that didn't happen. The political class in these countries saw an opportunity to get out from under "the Center", which appealed to them. The population as a whole (as well as the politicians) also thought they were going to get financial aid from the west proportionally to what Poland had/would get. This looked like a great windfall. Bush's "Chicken Kiev" speech was designed and intended to disabuse them of that notion. The US didn't have the money and Bush didn't have the political clout to spend it even if we had it. It didn't work. The enthusiasm for independence was too great in the general population. Their politicians simply didn't believe the US wouldn't help them. They also wanted to benefit from their positions not being "gifts" of the Russian Federation. Wishful thinking was rampant at all levels.
This history makes Ukraine and Belarus more "Russian" than many of the smaller republics in Russia. They both have many more people that are ethnically Russian and speak Russian "at home". This is particularly true in the Donbas. Putin has reverted to the Tsarist approach of "colonization" and "Russification". He is also, as a bonus, killing off a lot of the ethnic minorities already in Russia. He expects he can win the war in Ukraine before he generates enough unrest in Russia to become a big problem. There are some cracks forming, but Putin is probably able to suppress this dissent. This dissent will only be a big problem if it spreads to ethnic Russians. Lets hope that happens, and soon.
While this unrest probably will not lead to any major disruption of the Russian war effort in Ukraine, it does show that Russia has a "minorities" problem and it isn't minor. While racism/tribalism exists in almost all nations, in Russia it has often been acknowledged by the ruling class and actually embraced as a "good thing". Certainly under the Tsars being "Russian" was a big thing and the Tsars often cloaked their aggressive wars as "spreading Russian civilization" to "uncivilized natives". It has also been universally true that for advancement in Russia ethnic minority people had to become "honorary Russians". It is also true that Russians sent to administer "uncivilized" people sometimes intermarried and created "hybrid Russians" who went to school in Russia proper. These people were often sent to government jobs in areas that were ethnically different than their own origins because they would be loyal to the state and not the inhabitants.
To it's credit, the Soviet Union on paper condemned racism. It openly accepted leaders that were minorities (Stalin). However, the reality was that the Soviet Union inflicted even worse depredations on uncooperative minority areas than the Tsars ever did. Of course, they sometimes did the same to ethnic Russians. The oppression was now both ethnically based and politically based.
With the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia "spun off" much of it's Muslim minority. Both Gorbachev and Yeltsin considered this a "good thing" as they were more trouble than they were worth. Chechnya was considered important enough to keep. The leadership firmly believed the ethnic minority republics of Ukraine and Belarus would vote to remain as part of the Russian Federation. For reasons that were partially (but not primarily) ethnically based, that didn't happen. The political class in these countries saw an opportunity to get out from under "the Center", which appealed to them. The population as a whole (as well as the politicians) also thought they were going to get financial aid from the west proportionally to what Poland had/would get. This looked like a great windfall. Bush's "Chicken Kiev" speech was designed and intended to disabuse them of that notion. The US didn't have the money and Bush didn't have the political clout to spend it even if we had it. It didn't work. The enthusiasm for independence was too great in the general population. Their politicians simply didn't believe the US wouldn't help them. They also wanted to benefit from their positions not being "gifts" of the Russian Federation. Wishful thinking was rampant at all levels.
This history makes Ukraine and Belarus more "Russian" than many of the smaller republics in Russia. They both have many more people that are ethnically Russian and speak Russian "at home". This is particularly true in the Donbas. Putin has reverted to the Tsarist approach of "colonization" and "Russification". He is also, as a bonus, killing off a lot of the ethnic minorities already in Russia. He expects he can win the war in Ukraine before he generates enough unrest in Russia to become a big problem. There are some cracks forming, but Putin is probably able to suppress this dissent. This dissent will only be a big problem if it spreads to ethnic Russians. Lets hope that happens, and soon.