12-26-2023, 10:51 AM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-moves-...17721.html
Good news, but I expect the final vote to be withheld until the US Senate passes an approval of the F-16 upgrade program. Türkiye is not stupid enough to give up their veto until the US is fully committed. Whether that vote in the US Senate can occur "soon" is dubious. Normally the administration has enough influence on such military matters that they can (sometimes assisted by a quid pro quo) get a favorable vote. Right now, that is very improbable IMO. There are legitimate questions about Türkiye's behavior and commitment to NATO, democracy, and human rights. That said, they are in NATO and we need them to be there, even if they are far from perfect. The F-35 situation, coupled with the S-400s poor performance in Türkiye has sent a significant message. Withholding the F-16s does nobody any good and NATO lots of harm. The US does need to open a more serious dialog with Türkiye about many issues, but that is a different effort.
A much more serious problem (IMO) is Hungary. When this all started Hungary was considered as merely a bandit trying to get whatever it could. They even stated they would approve Sweden when Türkiye did. This is probably no longer the case. Hungary has decided to go it's own way on many issues and domestic political considerations have become deeply involved (perhaps governing) in their international relations. They can no longer simply be "bought off", as was previously assumed. IMO Swedish membership in NATO is in real trouble. Something needs to happen in Hungary to convince (dare I say "remind") their public that they are not strong enough economically or militarily to dictate to the rest of NATO and the EU. Unfortunately, Hungary has a long history of overplaying their hand to their own detriment. Hopefully that won't be the case here.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukr...023-12-26/
I would dearly like to know how the SU-24s got close enough to do the deed and then made it home. It is a long haul through not very friendly airspace. Makes one wonder about the state of Russian early warning. I would think by now they should be super paranoid. Makes one also wonder about the feasibility of a similar attack on the Kerch bridge at mid-span.
It is also said the ship was transporting drones from Iran. Not clear why/how this would be so, but the secondary explosions indicated the ship was carrying something explosive. Artillery ammunition would do fine :-).
Good news, but I expect the final vote to be withheld until the US Senate passes an approval of the F-16 upgrade program. Türkiye is not stupid enough to give up their veto until the US is fully committed. Whether that vote in the US Senate can occur "soon" is dubious. Normally the administration has enough influence on such military matters that they can (sometimes assisted by a quid pro quo) get a favorable vote. Right now, that is very improbable IMO. There are legitimate questions about Türkiye's behavior and commitment to NATO, democracy, and human rights. That said, they are in NATO and we need them to be there, even if they are far from perfect. The F-35 situation, coupled with the S-400s poor performance in Türkiye has sent a significant message. Withholding the F-16s does nobody any good and NATO lots of harm. The US does need to open a more serious dialog with Türkiye about many issues, but that is a different effort.
A much more serious problem (IMO) is Hungary. When this all started Hungary was considered as merely a bandit trying to get whatever it could. They even stated they would approve Sweden when Türkiye did. This is probably no longer the case. Hungary has decided to go it's own way on many issues and domestic political considerations have become deeply involved (perhaps governing) in their international relations. They can no longer simply be "bought off", as was previously assumed. IMO Swedish membership in NATO is in real trouble. Something needs to happen in Hungary to convince (dare I say "remind") their public that they are not strong enough economically or militarily to dictate to the rest of NATO and the EU. Unfortunately, Hungary has a long history of overplaying their hand to their own detriment. Hopefully that won't be the case here.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukr...023-12-26/
I would dearly like to know how the SU-24s got close enough to do the deed and then made it home. It is a long haul through not very friendly airspace. Makes one wonder about the state of Russian early warning. I would think by now they should be super paranoid. Makes one also wonder about the feasibility of a similar attack on the Kerch bridge at mid-span.
It is also said the ship was transporting drones from Iran. Not clear why/how this would be so, but the secondary explosions indicated the ship was carrying something explosive. Artillery ammunition would do fine :-).