[81alum]

The way things are going with funding from the West, this offer is one that the Ukrainians may not be able to refuse, but also one they are not able to accept:

Supposed Cease Fire Offer

I'm sure he would be happy to stop the war if he is allowed to keep the 20% of Ukraine he has seized--especially Crimea.  Of course, the war would stop just for long enough for him to harden his gains, rearm, wait for a lull, and strike again--maybe Ukraine, maybe some other bordering state. 

On the other hand, the prospect of taking back the invaded territories gets more and more remote.  A peace settlement based on the current boundaries would probably only be acceptable to the Ukrainians if they had an absolute guarantee of protection for what is left of their country--which would mean NATO membership.  And with Hungary becoming a pro-Putin autocracy, that will never ever happen.

Under these circumstances, the only way I see a successful outcome is if the West vigorously delivers copious amounts of aid and equipment for years to come, making Russia break before Ukraine breaks.  That prospect also looks more and more bleak.

In short, the heady optimism of the first year--when Ukraine turned aside an invasion by a massive army and even recaptured enormous chunks of territory--is long gone.  I am not despairing, but it is hard to see this turning out well for a valiant people whose fortitude and love of freedom is not sufficiently recognized.

[81alum]

The way things are going with funding from the West, this offer is one that the Ukrainians may not be able to refuse, but also one they are not able to accept:

Supposed Cease Fire Offer

I'm sure he would be happy to stop the war if he is allowed to keep the 20% of Ukraine he has seized--especially Crimea.  Of course, the war would stop just for long enough for him to harden his gains, rearm, wait for a lull, and strike again--maybe Ukraine, maybe some other bordering state. 

On the other hand, the prospect of taking back the invaded territories gets more and more remote.  A peace settlement based on the current boundaries would probably only be acceptable to the Ukrainians if they had an absolute guarantee of protection for what is left of their country--which would mean NATO membership.  And with Hungary becoming a pro-Putin autocracy, that will never ever happen.

Under these circumstances, the only way I see a successful outcome is if the West vigorously delivers copious amounts of aid and equipment for years to come, making Russia break before Ukraine breaks.  That prospect also looks more and more bleak.

In short, the heady optimism of the first year--when Ukraine turned aside an invasion by a massive army and even recaptured enormous chunks of territory--is long gone.  I am not despairing, but it is hard to see this turning out well for a valiant people whose fortitude and love of freedom is not sufficiently recognized.