[Goose]

Some great posts!   and yes, I can see how my stalemate conclusion needs a re-think.   At the same time continuing to worry about the strategic depth of resourcing for Ukraine in terms of both manpower and materiel given Ukraine's smaller inherent size than Russia, damage from the war, and potentially wavering support from NATO,

IMO that is a very balanced and largely "correct" reading of the situation. One "wild card" that is almost impossible to read is the political situation in both Russia and Ukraine. We have almost no visibility into that in Russia and just barely more in Ukraine. There are undoubtedly all kinds of things going on regarding which we have no clue. These forces could decide the war with almost no warning or could do nothing at all. Makes it hard to know what will actually happen.

[Goose]

Some great posts!   and yes, I can see how my stalemate conclusion needs a re-think.   At the same time continuing to worry about the strategic depth of resourcing for Ukraine in terms of both manpower and materiel given Ukraine's smaller inherent size than Russia, damage from the war, and potentially wavering support from NATO,

IMO that is a very balanced and largely "correct" reading of the situation. One "wild card" that is almost impossible to read is the political situation in both Russia and Ukraine. We have almost no visibility into that in Russia and just barely more in Ukraine. There are undoubtedly all kinds of things going on regarding which we have no clue. These forces could decide the war with almost no warning or could do nothing at all. Makes it hard to know what will actually happen.