[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/zelenskyy-ang...01495.html

Interesting article about what Zelenskyy is thinking. It is clear that things are getting more difficult politically both inside and outside Ukraine. It is also clear that the strain on Ukrainian society in terms of manpower and willingness to fight is taking it's toll. Russia is undoubtedly counting on this to eventually result in collapse. Hopefully that is going to happen, but it is a distinct possibility. It is foolish for the US to deny this is an issue. We and the EU may need to take action to help Ukrainian morale independent of direct military aid.

There is a presidential election in Ukraine scheduled for 31 March 2024. Will it be held? Should it be held? On the one hand it would send a great message of democratic strength and integrity to the world. On the other hand, Zelenskyy has at times indicated he will not run. Even if he does, there are undoubtedly other candidates that will promise an "easy" solution to the war that actually have no clue. There is a significant risk Ukraine would lose it's best leader. It will be a hard decision whether to have the election or not.

Link to VZ saying he won't run?
Link to articles about Ukraine considering whether to skip elections altogether?
Link to polls showing anyone with a good shot at beating VZ?
I am willing to believe these assertions if they have significant backup, but they definitely challenge my assumptions.

Start with https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/31/7417910/ This article raises questions ("if the elections are held) about the possibility of not having elections and sets forth requirements that have not yet been met in order to hold them. In any case, legislation will be necessary to hold elections and AFAIK this legislation has not been passed. In fact, as near as I can tell, it is more probable than not the election will not be held. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/world...s-war.html.

Next, look at https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk...n-in-2024/ This article came out AFTER Zelenskyy made the previous statement. It casts some doubt on his intentions. It is obviously not cast in stone that he will run, and his attitude is undoubtedly not being improved by the political situation in the West and in his own country.

https://visegradinsight.eu/several-conte...residency/ It appears the the "opposition" candidates would prefer to not have an election while the war continues. Running against Zelenskyy (who is the "first choice" of 65% of the voters) isn't inviting, especially if you must now win the war :-). However, depending what happens between now and the end of March it is not impossible that a George McClellan type candidate could rapidly gain traction. I know of nobody out there right now, but I also think nobody understands/can predict  the psychology of the Ukrainian electorate. The public is undoubtedly sick of this war, but they also know the consequences of giving up are seriously unacceptable. The danger is a candidate that has a "secret plan" (a la Nixon) to end the war, allowing them to have their cake and eat it too. Enough people may believe it to get said candidate elected.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/zelenskyy-ang...01495.html

Interesting article about what Zelenskyy is thinking. It is clear that things are getting more difficult politically both inside and outside Ukraine. It is also clear that the strain on Ukrainian society in terms of manpower and willingness to fight is taking it's toll. Russia is undoubtedly counting on this to eventually result in collapse. Hopefully that is going to happen, but it is a distinct possibility. It is foolish for the US to deny this is an issue. We and the EU may need to take action to help Ukrainian morale independent of direct military aid.

There is a presidential election in Ukraine scheduled for 31 March 2024. Will it be held? Should it be held? On the one hand it would send a great message of democratic strength and integrity to the world. On the other hand, Zelenskyy has at times indicated he will not run. Even if he does, there are undoubtedly other candidates that will promise an "easy" solution to the war that actually have no clue. There is a significant risk Ukraine would lose it's best leader. It will be a hard decision whether to have the election or not.

Link to VZ saying he won't run?
Link to articles about Ukraine considering whether to skip elections altogether?
Link to polls showing anyone with a good shot at beating VZ?
I am willing to believe these assertions if they have significant backup, but they definitely challenge my assumptions.

Start with https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/31/7417910/ This article raises questions ("if the elections are held) about the possibility of not having elections and sets forth requirements that have not yet been met in order to hold them. In any case, legislation will be necessary to hold elections and AFAIK this legislation has not been passed. In fact, as near as I can tell, it is more probable than not the election will not be held. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/world...s-war.html.

Next, look at https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk...n-in-2024/ This article came out AFTER Zelenskyy made the previous statement. It casts some doubt on his intentions. It is obviously not cast in stone that he will run, and his attitude is undoubtedly not being improved by the political situation in the West and in his own country.

https://visegradinsight.eu/several-conte...residency/ It appears the the "opposition" candidates would prefer to not have an election while the war continues. Running against Zelenskyy (who is the "first choice" of 65% of the voters) isn't inviting, especially if you must now win the war :-). However, depending what happens between now and the end of March it is not impossible that a George McClellan type candidate could rapidly gain traction. I know of nobody out there right now, but I also think nobody understands/can predict  the psychology of the Ukrainian electorate. The public is undoubtedly sick of this war, but they also know the consequences of giving up are seriously unacceptable. The danger is a candidate that has a "secret plan" (a la Nixon) to end the war, allowing them to have their cake and eat it too. Enough people may believe it to get said candidate elected.