[TrumpCard]

My instinct says Biden would want to go into this meeting with some confidence that he'll be able to announce humanitarian aid or safe zones or hostage releases or some other progress.  Or at least not at a moment when the hostilities are dramatically escalating.  Do any of you also infer that Biden believes that a ground invasion won't start at least until after he leaves and that there may be humanitarian progress between now and Thursday?

Israel will not start a ground invasion of Gaza until Biden leaves, baring Hamas doing something really unforeseen. That part is pretty much for sure. I expect the US and other nations are madly trying to put something together that will "prevent" a ground war, or, failing that, will get as many Palestinians out of harm's way as possible. Egypt is supposedly in "talks" to accept up to 100,000 refugees. I expect the PA will take few if any, for several reasons. One, they aren't exactly swimming in resources themselves, in space, facilities, or money. Two, the refugees would have to get there, which given no air service in Gaza would probably involve transit through Israel. Three, the last thing the PA wants in the West Bank is a bunch of Hamas supporters. The PA got run out of Gaza by Hamas. They don't want a repeat. Jordan may take a few, but they have hosted Palestinian refugees before and it most emphatically didn't end well for either party. I doubt that has been "forgotten" by either party. Jordan also wants nothing to do with an "inoculation" of Hamas. The PLO was bad enough. Biden will be lucky if he gets even a token "solution".

There is some hope that Hamas is beginning to see a bit of sweet reason. They say they will free the hostages if Israel doesn't destroy Gaza. Probably too late for that offer to have any traction, but maybe something can be worked out. There is hope, but IMO not much.

I like how you went through each of the participants in the planned summit in Amman.  I agree that there's probably a reason that each of them is involved.  Of course, Biden's plans easily could blow up in his face, but it's interesting to try inferring what Biden envisions.  

--Even if Biden just gets Egypt to accept all the non-Hamas foreign nationals in Gaza, that would be a nice win.  Egypt hosting 100,000 Gazans would be big.  Also, Egypt has said it would only host Gazans if Israel allows aid to flow in the other direction, which means Biden might get two wins in one.  

--Like you, I don't foresee Jordan or the PA hosting many Gazans.  Biden may have included Abdullah and Abbas just to give them credit for having a seat at the table where something good happens.  I don't think there's any good alternative to Abbas as the successor to Hamas in leading Gaza. Abdullah doesn't seem essential, but, for some reason, Biden has hosted Abdullah in the U.S. three times already and apparently sees Abdullah as a trusted partner in the peace process.  I'm not sure I see his value, but maybe he's the neutral moderator.

[TrumpCard]

My instinct says Biden would want to go into this meeting with some confidence that he'll be able to announce humanitarian aid or safe zones or hostage releases or some other progress.  Or at least not at a moment when the hostilities are dramatically escalating.  Do any of you also infer that Biden believes that a ground invasion won't start at least until after he leaves and that there may be humanitarian progress between now and Thursday?

Israel will not start a ground invasion of Gaza until Biden leaves, baring Hamas doing something really unforeseen. That part is pretty much for sure. I expect the US and other nations are madly trying to put something together that will "prevent" a ground war, or, failing that, will get as many Palestinians out of harm's way as possible. Egypt is supposedly in "talks" to accept up to 100,000 refugees. I expect the PA will take few if any, for several reasons. One, they aren't exactly swimming in resources themselves, in space, facilities, or money. Two, the refugees would have to get there, which given no air service in Gaza would probably involve transit through Israel. Three, the last thing the PA wants in the West Bank is a bunch of Hamas supporters. The PA got run out of Gaza by Hamas. They don't want a repeat. Jordan may take a few, but they have hosted Palestinian refugees before and it most emphatically didn't end well for either party. I doubt that has been "forgotten" by either party. Jordan also wants nothing to do with an "inoculation" of Hamas. The PLO was bad enough. Biden will be lucky if he gets even a token "solution".

There is some hope that Hamas is beginning to see a bit of sweet reason. They say they will free the hostages if Israel doesn't destroy Gaza. Probably too late for that offer to have any traction, but maybe something can be worked out. There is hope, but IMO not much.

I like how you went through each of the participants in the planned summit in Amman.  I agree that there's probably a reason that each of them is involved.  Of course, Biden's plans easily could blow up in his face, but it's interesting to try inferring what Biden envisions.  

--Even if Biden just gets Egypt to accept all the non-Hamas foreign nationals in Gaza, that would be a nice win.  Egypt hosting 100,000 Gazans would be big.  Also, Egypt has said it would only host Gazans if Israel allows aid to flow in the other direction, which means Biden might get two wins in one.  

--Like you, I don't foresee Jordan or the PA hosting many Gazans.  Biden may have included Abdullah and Abbas just to give them credit for having a seat at the table where something good happens.  I don't think there's any good alternative to Abbas as the successor to Hamas in leading Gaza. Abdullah doesn't seem essential, but, for some reason, Biden has hosted Abdullah in the U.S. three times already and apparently sees Abdullah as a trusted partner in the peace process.  I'm not sure I see his value, but maybe he's the neutral moderator.