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Ukrainian Armed Forces are the most creative I've ever seen. They do more with less than Russia does with more. They are surgically precise with their targeting. I don't know how the pace of Russian losses in troops and equipment are sustainable. Ukraine seems to really know how to hit logistics and enabling infrastructure very well.

When the Abrams, F-16s, and ATACMS are deployed, it's hard to imagine things getting better for Russia. 

Really the only thing Russia can do is throw more bodies at the front lines, but modern weapons combined with Ukraine's ability to destroy supply routes will make them a lot less effective than they might have been in WWII.

The next thing I'm watching for is how the changing weather impacts things. Last year Ukraine pretty much dug in for the winter.  I don't think that is happening this year. I mean there may be some limits to what can be done, but the push must continue to some degree. I've theorized the Abrams and F-16s were being supplied to allow the offensive to continue at a faster pace during winter because they are both all-weather platforms.

The US isn't going to supply ATACMS. Remove that from your thinking. It would require the administration to do something the president explicitly said we would not do. That isn't getting "walked back". The number of F-16s that will be operational in Ukraine by February will be minimal if any. The pilots will probably be minimally qualified in IFR conditions. Trust me, the operations tempo of all air units drops precipitously in the European winter. The accident rate among inexperienced pilots will be astronomical if it doesn't. On some days, you can fly. On many, you can't.

The Leopards that Ukraine has are all-weather too. Ukraine doesn't need more tanks to continue the offensive. Be aware however that even the Leopards needs to keep their engines running or it may not start the next morning. The lubricants become ineffective.  Most important however is that the Mark 1 Model 1 infantry trooper is not all weather and cannot operate at temperatures well below freezing for very long without breaking down. That is mostly what Ukraine has and what has brought them their most success. The offensive will continue, but not at nearly the same tempo. That is an unavoidable fact. Fortunately for Ukraine, it is unclear the Russians have provided adequate cold weather gear for their troops. Even if you are in a trench, not in open country, with inadequate gear you will freeze to death.

Of course, it could be a "mild" winter and only occasionally shut down operations. However, the weather is going to have a significant impact.

Just get this feeling that Russia is going to collapse all at once at some point after the pressure from Ukraine becomes too great to withstand in too many places. Russia's economy, morale, and supplies aren't sustainable. It's gonna be Afghanistan all over again for them in the end.

One thing you can be absolutely sure of is that it will be totally unlike Afghanistan in the end if Russia loses. Afghanistan was never an existential threat to the USSR. They could leave any time and nobody in Russia would really care. Russia wasn't going to lose any territory and wasn't going to be significantly worse off at the end of the war than they were before it. In the Ukraine war, the Russian economy has been seriously compromised, their main energy customers no longer are, and they are cut off from the international banking systems. Inflation is rampant and the Ruble is worth much less that before. Unlike Afghanistan, the EU cares about this one. The main difference is that Russia stands to lose Crimea, and with that control of the Black sea and the Sea of Azov. You can be absolutely certain that such losses will have more effect in Russia than Afghanistan ever did. This is true even if one ignores the vastly greater casualties Russia has suffered in the current war.

CORRECT.  Ukraine is not like Afghanistan at all.  Agree. 
Putin uses the map from 1619 -- the old Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth that conquered the territory in the 1500s. 
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pol...(1619).png
-- except the far Eastern region of Ukraine (Luhansk, Donetsk) and Crimea.  

And the election results from 2004, backing Yanukovych, who was ousted in the 2014 Maidan Revolution.

[ADPinWDC]

Ukrainian Armed Forces are the most creative I've ever seen. They do more with less than Russia does with more. They are surgically precise with their targeting. I don't know how the pace of Russian losses in troops and equipment are sustainable. Ukraine seems to really know how to hit logistics and enabling infrastructure very well.

When the Abrams, F-16s, and ATACMS are deployed, it's hard to imagine things getting better for Russia. 

Really the only thing Russia can do is throw more bodies at the front lines, but modern weapons combined with Ukraine's ability to destroy supply routes will make them a lot less effective than they might have been in WWII.

The next thing I'm watching for is how the changing weather impacts things. Last year Ukraine pretty much dug in for the winter.  I don't think that is happening this year. I mean there may be some limits to what can be done, but the push must continue to some degree. I've theorized the Abrams and F-16s were being supplied to allow the offensive to continue at a faster pace during winter because they are both all-weather platforms.

The US isn't going to supply ATACMS. Remove that from your thinking. It would require the administration to do something the president explicitly said we would not do. That isn't getting "walked back". The number of F-16s that will be operational in Ukraine by February will be minimal if any. The pilots will probably be minimally qualified in IFR conditions. Trust me, the operations tempo of all air units drops precipitously in the European winter. The accident rate among inexperienced pilots will be astronomical if it doesn't. On some days, you can fly. On many, you can't.

The Leopards that Ukraine has are all-weather too. Ukraine doesn't need more tanks to continue the offensive. Be aware however that even the Leopards needs to keep their engines running or it may not start the next morning. The lubricants become ineffective.  Most important however is that the Mark 1 Model 1 infantry trooper is not all weather and cannot operate at temperatures well below freezing for very long without breaking down. That is mostly what Ukraine has and what has brought them their most success. The offensive will continue, but not at nearly the same tempo. That is an unavoidable fact. Fortunately for Ukraine, it is unclear the Russians have provided adequate cold weather gear for their troops. Even if you are in a trench, not in open country, with inadequate gear you will freeze to death.

Of course, it could be a "mild" winter and only occasionally shut down operations. However, the weather is going to have a significant impact.

Just get this feeling that Russia is going to collapse all at once at some point after the pressure from Ukraine becomes too great to withstand in too many places. Russia's economy, morale, and supplies aren't sustainable. It's gonna be Afghanistan all over again for them in the end.

One thing you can be absolutely sure of is that it will be totally unlike Afghanistan in the end if Russia loses. Afghanistan was never an existential threat to the USSR. They could leave any time and nobody in Russia would really care. Russia wasn't going to lose any territory and wasn't going to be significantly worse off at the end of the war than they were before it. In the Ukraine war, the Russian economy has been seriously compromised, their main energy customers no longer are, and they are cut off from the international banking systems. Inflation is rampant and the Ruble is worth much less that before. Unlike Afghanistan, the EU cares about this one. The main difference is that Russia stands to lose Crimea, and with that control of the Black sea and the Sea of Azov. You can be absolutely certain that such losses will have more effect in Russia than Afghanistan ever did. This is true even if one ignores the vastly greater casualties Russia has suffered in the current war.

CORRECT.  Ukraine is not like Afghanistan at all.  Agree. 
Putin uses the map from 1619 -- the old Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth that conquered the territory in the 1500s. 
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pol...(1619).png
-- except the far Eastern region of Ukraine (Luhansk, Donetsk) and Crimea.  

And the election results from 2004, backing Yanukovych, who was ousted in the 2014 Maidan Revolution.