[Goose]

Ukraine will be like Afghanistan all over again in the sense failure and withdrawal in Ukraine will have to be faced like it was in Afghanistan. 

I offer no opinion on what post war situation will turn out being worse, but it does seem Russia has a lot more stacked against it now than it did after the Afghanistan withdrawal.

I understand your point, but in reality one of the major factors is that the "failure and withdrawal" from Afghanistan was not "faced". It was a non-event. Only after many years of samizdat reading and the like did a significant number of Russians even know of the failures. Even then, it's political impact was minimal and it didn't have anywhere near enough impact to bring down the regime.

I see no way that withdrawal from Ukraine can be ignored by the Russian government or the Russian people. They will, at a minimum, try to spin it as a "victory" even if it isn't. Given the economic and immigration impacts of the war, I see no way such "spin" can succeed. IMO Putin is "all in" on Ukraine because he knows that if he is forced to withdraw from Crimea, he is toast. If he can keep Crimea and some of his gains in the east, he may survive. The Russian government is stuck in an untenable situation. They have to "win" in order to survive. A significant defeat that can't be spun is a "win" will undoubtedly lead to regime change. Not necessarily a "good" regime change, but the current leaders can't survive an obvious failure (like losing Crimea).

[Goose]

Ukraine will be like Afghanistan all over again in the sense failure and withdrawal in Ukraine will have to be faced like it was in Afghanistan. 

I offer no opinion on what post war situation will turn out being worse, but it does seem Russia has a lot more stacked against it now than it did after the Afghanistan withdrawal.

I understand your point, but in reality one of the major factors is that the "failure and withdrawal" from Afghanistan was not "faced". It was a non-event. Only after many years of samizdat reading and the like did a significant number of Russians even know of the failures. Even then, it's political impact was minimal and it didn't have anywhere near enough impact to bring down the regime.

I see no way that withdrawal from Ukraine can be ignored by the Russian government or the Russian people. They will, at a minimum, try to spin it as a "victory" even if it isn't. Given the economic and immigration impacts of the war, I see no way such "spin" can succeed. IMO Putin is "all in" on Ukraine because he knows that if he is forced to withdraw from Crimea, he is toast. If he can keep Crimea and some of his gains in the east, he may survive. The Russian government is stuck in an untenable situation. They have to "win" in order to survive. A significant defeat that can't be spun is a "win" will undoubtedly lead to regime change. Not necessarily a "good" regime change, but the current leaders can't survive an obvious failure (like losing Crimea).