[81alum]

The portal is the more enduring problem, but I understand why some need to find a person or two to blame for last night's thrashing.

What USC did last year, and what Colorado did this year are not possible at Stanford.   In both cases their recruiting and roster situations were in real peril, but the portal solved everything, and more.

Most FBS schools that have seen a head coach departure in the last few years have seen transfer numbers at least as dramatic as Stanford's situation.  When programs see a coach depart the program will need 20+ incoming transfers to offset the departures.   Programs most eager to win quickly seem to also purge those that are not going to fit the new coach scheme, and that is definitely not going to happen at Stanford.

It would have been great for Shaw to win 10+ games until the year he departed, but that is not usually how coaches leave in college football. 

The one-way portal means Stanford will see a very weak roster whenever a coach leaves.    For me the impact of the one-way portal on a coaching change is tough to see because I think it helps justify keeping Haase in his position.   

Stanford's status as an elite university with nearly impossible admissions standards is inconsistent with then allowing Stanford to accept 20-40 transfer "students" to a football program that are marginal students, will only stay for 5-17 months, and almost certainly will not graduate with a degree. 

My concern for TT and Stanford is that almost every team I saw win in week 0, 1 & 2 featured starters in major roles that had been in the portal over the offseason.   Even for teams that were successful in 2021 and 2022 they experienced massive portal disruptions and enhancements. 

I can't imagine an NFL team winning in the league without utilizing free-agency and now in 2023 I can't imagine a college football team getting 8+ wins with a roster built almost exclusively from HS recruiting.

I always believed NIL opportunities and the transfer portal would empower players in ways that would be detrimental for Stanford football, but a net positive for student-athletes in the USA.   Living in that reality here in 2023 is not enjoyable, but I still like the idea that athletes at least have a chance to monetize their value with NILs and transfers.

I've been avoiding this thread because I am so, so, so tired of beating the dead horse.  But Farm, I find myself in agreement with much of your thoughtful analysis.  The recruiting paradigm has now shifted--the most successful, elite teams are no longer going to (primarily) sustain their excellence over time by recruiting high school players, but by recruiting "proven" transfers from lesser programs and programs with coaching transitions.    Can Stanford field a 2012 caliber team the old-fashioned way--by recruiting high school students and building them up over 4 and 5 years?  Can we do that while our chief rivals routinely take massive shortcuts and can plug any weakness with just six months notice?  If TT can do that, he will be a much bigger miracle worker than Harbaugh.

[81alum]

The portal is the more enduring problem, but I understand why some need to find a person or two to blame for last night's thrashing.

What USC did last year, and what Colorado did this year are not possible at Stanford.   In both cases their recruiting and roster situations were in real peril, but the portal solved everything, and more.

Most FBS schools that have seen a head coach departure in the last few years have seen transfer numbers at least as dramatic as Stanford's situation.  When programs see a coach depart the program will need 20+ incoming transfers to offset the departures.   Programs most eager to win quickly seem to also purge those that are not going to fit the new coach scheme, and that is definitely not going to happen at Stanford.

It would have been great for Shaw to win 10+ games until the year he departed, but that is not usually how coaches leave in college football. 

The one-way portal means Stanford will see a very weak roster whenever a coach leaves.    For me the impact of the one-way portal on a coaching change is tough to see because I think it helps justify keeping Haase in his position.   

Stanford's status as an elite university with nearly impossible admissions standards is inconsistent with then allowing Stanford to accept 20-40 transfer "students" to a football program that are marginal students, will only stay for 5-17 months, and almost certainly will not graduate with a degree. 

My concern for TT and Stanford is that almost every team I saw win in week 0, 1 & 2 featured starters in major roles that had been in the portal over the offseason.   Even for teams that were successful in 2021 and 2022 they experienced massive portal disruptions and enhancements. 

I can't imagine an NFL team winning in the league without utilizing free-agency and now in 2023 I can't imagine a college football team getting 8+ wins with a roster built almost exclusively from HS recruiting.

I always believed NIL opportunities and the transfer portal would empower players in ways that would be detrimental for Stanford football, but a net positive for student-athletes in the USA.   Living in that reality here in 2023 is not enjoyable, but I still like the idea that athletes at least have a chance to monetize their value with NILs and transfers.

I've been avoiding this thread because I am so, so, so tired of beating the dead horse.  But Farm, I find myself in agreement with much of your thoughtful analysis.  The recruiting paradigm has now shifted--the most successful, elite teams are no longer going to (primarily) sustain their excellence over time by recruiting high school players, but by recruiting "proven" transfers from lesser programs and programs with coaching transitions.    Can Stanford field a 2012 caliber team the old-fashioned way--by recruiting high school students and building them up over 4 and 5 years?  Can we do that while our chief rivals routinely take massive shortcuts and can plug any weakness with just six months notice?  If TT can do that, he will be a much bigger miracle worker than Harbaugh.