[Goose]

It is getting near the end of the "fighting season" in Ukraine. Ukraine is unfortunately well short of it's primary objective, Melitopol. While it is unwise to underestimate them, it looks like Ukraine is not going to cut the land bridge this year, at least as of now. Obviously, this isn't good. It is also clear that Ukraine has suffered significant losses in personnel. Attacking across the vast minefields Russia put in place is not ever going to be "safe", and so far Ukraine has been smart about how they have proceeded. Ukraine still has some time, and they have been putting a lot of pressure on Russian logistics. As many others have written, Russia must defend everywhere, and Ukraine only needs to break through in one place. Let's hope they can.

Ukraine may have to start addressing morale issues going forward, as their progress to date isn't stunning. However, I will believe this year's offensive is officially over only when Ukraine closes the back door on Bakhmut. That is their consolation prize if all else fails. They haven't claimed it yet.

Given the tools the two sides have to work with, it sure feels like WWI, with enormous expenditures of men and material to make little bulges in the lines.  Very disheartening.  And if it was difficult to make progress this season, imagine what it will be like after another year for the Russians to dig even deeper, deploy more mines, and replenish their artillery shells.

It is correct that there are many WWI aspects of this war. However, things like drones are adding some interesting "side effects". Ukraine is clearly of the opinion that if it has an effective air force they can break the stalemate. Clearing minefields and taking trenches is much easier if they have been bombed continuously while the battle is fought. Artillery can do this, but is difficult to concentrate quickly and undetected. Aircraft can concentrate in minutes from disparate directions. This makes it much easier to overwhelm a defensive position before support can be rushed to the spot. In this I think there is much merit. The question is how long can Ukraine hold on while creating such an air force.

Russia and Ukraine both have economic and political constraints that can end the war too. WWI ended mostly because Germany couldn't continue. They were out of food and also out of nitrates for explosives. The Kaiserschlacht offensive was a desperate attempt to win before Germany collapsed. The arrival of US troops sealed the deal, but Germany was done for by then. That is why their army basically fell apart. Russia has been attacking Ukraine's civilian economy all along. Ukraine is now doing some of that to Russia, particularly in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Ukraine is also showing the Russian people that they are not immune in this war. Maybe some of these efforts will have significant results. Who Knows?

[Goose]

It is getting near the end of the "fighting season" in Ukraine. Ukraine is unfortunately well short of it's primary objective, Melitopol. While it is unwise to underestimate them, it looks like Ukraine is not going to cut the land bridge this year, at least as of now. Obviously, this isn't good. It is also clear that Ukraine has suffered significant losses in personnel. Attacking across the vast minefields Russia put in place is not ever going to be "safe", and so far Ukraine has been smart about how they have proceeded. Ukraine still has some time, and they have been putting a lot of pressure on Russian logistics. As many others have written, Russia must defend everywhere, and Ukraine only needs to break through in one place. Let's hope they can.

Ukraine may have to start addressing morale issues going forward, as their progress to date isn't stunning. However, I will believe this year's offensive is officially over only when Ukraine closes the back door on Bakhmut. That is their consolation prize if all else fails. They haven't claimed it yet.

Given the tools the two sides have to work with, it sure feels like WWI, with enormous expenditures of men and material to make little bulges in the lines.  Very disheartening.  And if it was difficult to make progress this season, imagine what it will be like after another year for the Russians to dig even deeper, deploy more mines, and replenish their artillery shells.

It is correct that there are many WWI aspects of this war. However, things like drones are adding some interesting "side effects". Ukraine is clearly of the opinion that if it has an effective air force they can break the stalemate. Clearing minefields and taking trenches is much easier if they have been bombed continuously while the battle is fought. Artillery can do this, but is difficult to concentrate quickly and undetected. Aircraft can concentrate in minutes from disparate directions. This makes it much easier to overwhelm a defensive position before support can be rushed to the spot. In this I think there is much merit. The question is how long can Ukraine hold on while creating such an air force.

Russia and Ukraine both have economic and political constraints that can end the war too. WWI ended mostly because Germany couldn't continue. They were out of food and also out of nitrates for explosives. The Kaiserschlacht offensive was a desperate attempt to win before Germany collapsed. The arrival of US troops sealed the deal, but Germany was done for by then. That is why their army basically fell apart. Russia has been attacking Ukraine's civilian economy all along. Ukraine is now doing some of that to Russia, particularly in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Ukraine is also showing the Russian people that they are not immune in this war. Maybe some of these efforts will have significant results. Who Knows?