[81alum]

It is getting near the end of the "fighting season" in Ukraine. Ukraine is unfortunately well short of it's primary objective, Melitopol. While it is unwise to underestimate them, it looks like Ukraine is not going to cut the land bridge this year, at least as of now. Obviously, this isn't good. It is also clear that Ukraine has suffered significant losses in personnel. Attacking across the vast minefields Russia put in place is not ever going to be "safe", and so far Ukraine has been smart about how they have proceeded. Ukraine still has some time, and they have been putting a lot of pressure on Russian logistics. As many others have written, Russia must defend everywhere, and Ukraine only needs to break through in one place. Let's hope they can.

Ukraine may have to start addressing morale issues going forward, as their progress to date isn't stunning. However, I will believe this year's offensive is officially over only when Ukraine closes the back door on Bakhmut. That is their consolation prize if all else fails. They haven't claimed it yet.

Given the tools the two sides have to work with, it sure feels like WWI, with enormous expenditures of men and material to make little bulges in the lines.  Very disheartening.  And if it was difficult to make progress this season, imagine what it will be like after another year for the Russians to dig even deeper, deploy more mines, and replenish their artillery shells.

[81alum]

It is getting near the end of the "fighting season" in Ukraine. Ukraine is unfortunately well short of it's primary objective, Melitopol. While it is unwise to underestimate them, it looks like Ukraine is not going to cut the land bridge this year, at least as of now. Obviously, this isn't good. It is also clear that Ukraine has suffered significant losses in personnel. Attacking across the vast minefields Russia put in place is not ever going to be "safe", and so far Ukraine has been smart about how they have proceeded. Ukraine still has some time, and they have been putting a lot of pressure on Russian logistics. As many others have written, Russia must defend everywhere, and Ukraine only needs to break through in one place. Let's hope they can.

Ukraine may have to start addressing morale issues going forward, as their progress to date isn't stunning. However, I will believe this year's offensive is officially over only when Ukraine closes the back door on Bakhmut. That is their consolation prize if all else fails. They haven't claimed it yet.

Given the tools the two sides have to work with, it sure feels like WWI, with enormous expenditures of men and material to make little bulges in the lines.  Very disheartening.  And if it was difficult to make progress this season, imagine what it will be like after another year for the Russians to dig even deeper, deploy more mines, and replenish their artillery shells.