[Hieronymus]

I end up with 4 interrelated thoughts here:
1. It seems dangerous to me for the big 10 to sit back and wait on Oregon and UW. They maybe are premium brands now, but will they still be in 4 yrs if the PAC continues to diminish? Heck is UW really a premium brand even today?
2. Figure this all condenses to 40-48 teams. When all is done say roughly 70 schools will end up in a Power Five conference at some point. There are going to be a lot of losers in the end.
3. Do the SEC and Big 10 start purging weaker members at some point? Does Northwestern really make it to the end versus say North Carolina? Seems unlikely to me, but the mechanism to purge right now isn’t evident. I expect that when enough money is on the line though, one will get invented.
4. In the end do NCAA sports become a regional thing just in the Midwest and the South and if so how much does that reduce the money pot? Do the survivors really win in the end or do they end up with a greatly diminished pie albeit split with fewer parties?

Not sure how much I want Stanford to play this game anymore. It is going to get a whole lot uglier soon.

on #3, I have a hard time seeing schools getting booted out of a conference, has that ever happened?  US sports seem willing to tolerate poor teams in conferences/leagues.  To make it interesting they should have a promotion/relegation process...

Here is the thought experiment. Right now the Big 10 and SEC are set to have 32 teams combined shortly. Let us be a little harsh here and say we end at 42 teams. So we have spots for only 10 more.

Let’s say something like Notre Dame, Clemson, Oregon, UW, Arizona, Florida St, BYU, Baylor, Oklahoma St, and Kansas. This is a very arbitrary list using some mix of academics, geography and football/basketball strength. But that is 10 so that is every school that survives in this thought experiment.

I will exclude likely no-hopers like Wash St, Oregon St, and Wake Forrest; but that still leaves 20-25 potential schools out: Stanford, Cal, Colorado, Utah, Fresno St, SDST, UNC, NC St, Syracuse, Miami, Virginia, Iowa St, SMU, WVU, Virginia Tech, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, BC, Louisville, Pitt and Duke. Given this list do you think Rutgers, Vandy, maybe Purdue, and maybe one of MS St/ Ole Miss make the final cut? In a world where cash is king, my gut says no. Even having 48 schools survive in the end doesn’t change the basic analysis much. Doesn’t mean I am right though.

[Hieronymus]

I end up with 4 interrelated thoughts here:
1. It seems dangerous to me for the big 10 to sit back and wait on Oregon and UW. They maybe are premium brands now, but will they still be in 4 yrs if the PAC continues to diminish? Heck is UW really a premium brand even today?
2. Figure this all condenses to 40-48 teams. When all is done say roughly 70 schools will end up in a Power Five conference at some point. There are going to be a lot of losers in the end.
3. Do the SEC and Big 10 start purging weaker members at some point? Does Northwestern really make it to the end versus say North Carolina? Seems unlikely to me, but the mechanism to purge right now isn’t evident. I expect that when enough money is on the line though, one will get invented.
4. In the end do NCAA sports become a regional thing just in the Midwest and the South and if so how much does that reduce the money pot? Do the survivors really win in the end or do they end up with a greatly diminished pie albeit split with fewer parties?

Not sure how much I want Stanford to play this game anymore. It is going to get a whole lot uglier soon.

on #3, I have a hard time seeing schools getting booted out of a conference, has that ever happened?  US sports seem willing to tolerate poor teams in conferences/leagues.  To make it interesting they should have a promotion/relegation process...

Here is the thought experiment. Right now the Big 10 and SEC are set to have 32 teams combined shortly. Let us be a little harsh here and say we end at 42 teams. So we have spots for only 10 more.

Let’s say something like Notre Dame, Clemson, Oregon, UW, Arizona, Florida St, BYU, Baylor, Oklahoma St, and Kansas. This is a very arbitrary list using some mix of academics, geography and football/basketball strength. But that is 10 so that is every school that survives in this thought experiment.

I will exclude likely no-hopers like Wash St, Oregon St, and Wake Forrest; but that still leaves 20-25 potential schools out: Stanford, Cal, Colorado, Utah, Fresno St, SDST, UNC, NC St, Syracuse, Miami, Virginia, Iowa St, SMU, WVU, Virginia Tech, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, BC, Louisville, Pitt and Duke. Given this list do you think Rutgers, Vandy, maybe Purdue, and maybe one of MS St/ Ole Miss make the final cut? In a world where cash is king, my gut says no. Even having 48 schools survive in the end doesn’t change the basic analysis much. Doesn’t mean I am right though.