[Giants]

I don’t think most of the conference membership would agree with you.  Once Colorado makes it official, I would expect the Arizona’s to begin looking for a new home.  If either or both of them leave, the conference will be left with: 


two schools dressed up in their Sunday best hoping to attract a high-powered suitor

two schools that believe their academic ranking precludes the need to submit an application for admission to another conference (believing that ranking speaks for itself) 

two schools that are doomed to banishment to the MWC

one school that doesn’t know what it wants



What a mess…..

Utah knows what it wants, or more precisely, what it doesn't want. It doesn't want to be part of the Big-12. It also doesn't want to be part of the MWC or anything like that. Been there, done that, grew out of it. Unfortunately, what they want, a reversion to the status quo ante the USC/UCLA defection, is not available. This leaves them no acceptable choice.

Some version of the PAC-12 may survive (no matter how far the TV money falls) because for most schools there won't be a "landing spot" available. Washington and Oregon will probably have to wait a while to get in the Big-10, and during that time a lot of things in college football will change. I think the conferences that are in "good shape" (SEC and Big-10) may just take a "time out" and see what happens before they add/shed members. It is all about the money for them, and dividing a fixed or shrinking pot among more members isn't a "good deal".

How many "new" members the Big-12 will take is up in the air. Arizona really wants to land what may be the last available slot. One of their worries is that the state legislature will mandate that ASU and UofA play in the same conference. Colorado, Utah, UofA and ASU may make a "good" package deal from the Big-12's point of view, but that choice isn't high on Utah's list and I don't think ASU would consider that an "improvement" either. UofA is just scared they will be left out of any conference at all.

The Big 12 wants AZ but not ASU.  I agree that politics may play a role in “who can do what”.

I also agree that Utah wants to turn the clock back.  Given their alternatives, it is a tough time to be a Ute.

Yep, UW and UO are also in a bad position.  Why should schools like Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern and Illinois vote to admit a new member if it means slicing the pie into more pieces? (adding more money to the TV contracts because two new members are joining the conference is not going to happen).  
 
The Pac12 Presidents/ Chancellors made a very bad decision in 2019 when they didn’t accept ESPN’s offer to take over the P12 network (incl. a GOR agreement)  The end result of that decision - UCLA and USC walking and now the potential break-up of the conference.  The schools that have been left in the dust have no one to blame but themselves…..

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Jo...Pac12.aspx

[Giants]

I don’t think most of the conference membership would agree with you.  Once Colorado makes it official, I would expect the Arizona’s to begin looking for a new home.  If either or both of them leave, the conference will be left with: 


two schools dressed up in their Sunday best hoping to attract a high-powered suitor

two schools that believe their academic ranking precludes the need to submit an application for admission to another conference (believing that ranking speaks for itself) 

two schools that are doomed to banishment to the MWC

one school that doesn’t know what it wants



What a mess…..

Utah knows what it wants, or more precisely, what it doesn't want. It doesn't want to be part of the Big-12. It also doesn't want to be part of the MWC or anything like that. Been there, done that, grew out of it. Unfortunately, what they want, a reversion to the status quo ante the USC/UCLA defection, is not available. This leaves them no acceptable choice.

Some version of the PAC-12 may survive (no matter how far the TV money falls) because for most schools there won't be a "landing spot" available. Washington and Oregon will probably have to wait a while to get in the Big-10, and during that time a lot of things in college football will change. I think the conferences that are in "good shape" (SEC and Big-10) may just take a "time out" and see what happens before they add/shed members. It is all about the money for them, and dividing a fixed or shrinking pot among more members isn't a "good deal".

How many "new" members the Big-12 will take is up in the air. Arizona really wants to land what may be the last available slot. One of their worries is that the state legislature will mandate that ASU and UofA play in the same conference. Colorado, Utah, UofA and ASU may make a "good" package deal from the Big-12's point of view, but that choice isn't high on Utah's list and I don't think ASU would consider that an "improvement" either. UofA is just scared they will be left out of any conference at all.

The Big 12 wants AZ but not ASU.  I agree that politics may play a role in “who can do what”.

I also agree that Utah wants to turn the clock back.  Given their alternatives, it is a tough time to be a Ute.

Yep, UW and UO are also in a bad position.  Why should schools like Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern and Illinois vote to admit a new member if it means slicing the pie into more pieces? (adding more money to the TV contracts because two new members are joining the conference is not going to happen).  
 
The Pac12 Presidents/ Chancellors made a very bad decision in 2019 when they didn’t accept ESPN’s offer to take over the P12 network (incl. a GOR agreement)  The end result of that decision - UCLA and USC walking and now the potential break-up of the conference.  The schools that have been left in the dust have no one to blame but themselves…..

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Jo...Pac12.aspx