[Goose]

Apparently, according to the NYT and the US government, the "real" counteroffensive is now on.  The Russian Defense Ministry's spokesperson agrees.  So it looks like the long wind-up is over and the pitch is on the way.

The assault involves more than 100 Leopards and Bradleys and the foreign-trained troops that had been held in reserve are now pouring in.  The thrust appears to be in the Southeast, with Tokmak being the first objective and Melitopol the follow-up.

Mines, artillery, and "withering air strikes" seem to be the main impediments.

The ISW map does not seem to show much progress, and I note that Tokmak seems to be heavily fortified according to ISW.

Thoughts?  Any chance this is a feint and a second thrust will only appear after Russia rushes every spare resource to Tokmak?

IMO it is not a feint, but rather that the Ukrainians have a multi-level decision tree in their plan. That is definitely their style and in this situation probably a good idea. For a long time I (and many others) have expected Ukraine to strike toward Melitopol. That is surprising nobody. Their ostensible target is Berdyans'k, and if they get there we will all be ecstatic. If this thrust is going pretty well but needs more combat power, Ukraine may commit their remaining reserves to that effort. If they can take Melitopol it cuts the land bridge because the M14 and the railroad will be blocked. That is their #1 objective.

If Russia pulls a lot of troops out of Crimea/South Kherson Oblast to attack the flanks of the thrust to Melitopol, Ukraine IMO will attack out of Kherson/Kakhovka with their reserves. This will be behind the Russian line of attack and on it's left flank. It could really be very successful if Russia is too thin on the ground. It will hit the Russians outside of the fortifications and on the move, exactly what Ukraine wants. No minefields! Ukraine really wants a foothold in Crimea (for political reasons) if they can get it. It would also isolate lots of Russians with no means of resupply or retreat. If one believes the Russian morale isn't good, they may surrender in droves. This is Ukraine's "fondest dream". This attack will happen, but if things don't go well on the Melitopol axis, it may be in 2024.

Ukraine is also planning to do "something" near Bakhmut. It will not involve "lots" of the NATO trained troops, but you can take it to the bank that this is in the plan. The question is not if, but exactly what and when. Russia will be politically compelled to defend there, and it could eat up a lot of Russian combat power. The only current issue is holding the lines at Kreminna while this happens.

[Goose]

Apparently, according to the NYT and the US government, the "real" counteroffensive is now on.  The Russian Defense Ministry's spokesperson agrees.  So it looks like the long wind-up is over and the pitch is on the way.

The assault involves more than 100 Leopards and Bradleys and the foreign-trained troops that had been held in reserve are now pouring in.  The thrust appears to be in the Southeast, with Tokmak being the first objective and Melitopol the follow-up.

Mines, artillery, and "withering air strikes" seem to be the main impediments.

The ISW map does not seem to show much progress, and I note that Tokmak seems to be heavily fortified according to ISW.

Thoughts?  Any chance this is a feint and a second thrust will only appear after Russia rushes every spare resource to Tokmak?

IMO it is not a feint, but rather that the Ukrainians have a multi-level decision tree in their plan. That is definitely their style and in this situation probably a good idea. For a long time I (and many others) have expected Ukraine to strike toward Melitopol. That is surprising nobody. Their ostensible target is Berdyans'k, and if they get there we will all be ecstatic. If this thrust is going pretty well but needs more combat power, Ukraine may commit their remaining reserves to that effort. If they can take Melitopol it cuts the land bridge because the M14 and the railroad will be blocked. That is their #1 objective.

If Russia pulls a lot of troops out of Crimea/South Kherson Oblast to attack the flanks of the thrust to Melitopol, Ukraine IMO will attack out of Kherson/Kakhovka with their reserves. This will be behind the Russian line of attack and on it's left flank. It could really be very successful if Russia is too thin on the ground. It will hit the Russians outside of the fortifications and on the move, exactly what Ukraine wants. No minefields! Ukraine really wants a foothold in Crimea (for political reasons) if they can get it. It would also isolate lots of Russians with no means of resupply or retreat. If one believes the Russian morale isn't good, they may surrender in droves. This is Ukraine's "fondest dream". This attack will happen, but if things don't go well on the Melitopol axis, it may be in 2024.

Ukraine is also planning to do "something" near Bakhmut. It will not involve "lots" of the NATO trained troops, but you can take it to the bank that this is in the plan. The question is not if, but exactly what and when. Russia will be politically compelled to defend there, and it could eat up a lot of Russian combat power. The only current issue is holding the lines at Kreminna while this happens.