[Goose]

Stalemate still seems like the most likely outcome. 

As everyone here seems to acknowledge, if Ukraine does break through, it will be Spring 2024 (or later). The West simply didn’t deliver enough equipment soon enough to make a lightening counterattack possible this year. 

As to whether the West was right or wrong to slow play, I guess we’ll never know. The West could have ended up losing key diplomatic support from NATO members and/or the public if it went “too fast.”  Or maybe dipping their feet first somehow dissuaded Russia from engaging in tactics that otherwise would have harmed more civilians. Impossible to know.

I am not yet ready to say Ukraine isn't going to accomplish something "remarkable" this year. Their methodical approach may allow them to locate another "weak point" that they can exploit. There is also an argument that September is a "good time" to make a significant attack because if you succeed greatly, the winter weather change will make it difficult for the Russians to counter-attack. Similarly, if the Ukrainian all-out offensive fails greatly, the onset of winter will limit Russia's ability to exploit the failure. It might be a situation of "We get one chance this year. Let us pick our spot and limit the downside risk". Obviously, that offensive probably won't win the war, as even if it should provoke a Russian collapse, the winter weather would set in and stop the bleeding.

One thing that does seem clear, however, is that Ukraine wasn’t just *this* close to succeeding in a big counterattack. Delivering one more type of weapon a little earlier wasn’t going to cut it. Ukraine needed a lot of F-16s, a lot of armored vehicles, DPICMs, ATACMS, etc, and it needed *all* of that a long time ago if it was going to take a large amount of territory this year.

Certainly having "a lot" of all of the above "a long time ago" would have helped a lot. It is also certain that absorbing "a lot more" into their armed forces would have been difficult. Ukraine is coming to grips with an enemy that is very tenacious and without morals. There are also many more of them than there are Ukrainians. It is undoubtedly daunting. In war, nothing is certain. The Ukraine and the West needs to plan for no significant victories this year while striving to achieve them.

People in Ukraine are going to suffer more as a result of this delay. More kids in occupied territories will be kidnapped and never returned. The Russians will commit more atrocities. But there is some hope that all the military planning will come together for the West next Spring.

I am afraid that is too soon. Had F-16 training started in April, maybe. In August, not a chance. A bunch of guys that has been in the airplane a maximum of 9 months isn't going to cut it, especially with bad flying weather for at least 5 of those months. How many flying hours will they have? The losses will mount due to inexperience and pilot error. Ukraine will have to stop taking risks and conserve it's scarce F-16 resources.

[Goose]

Stalemate still seems like the most likely outcome. 

As everyone here seems to acknowledge, if Ukraine does break through, it will be Spring 2024 (or later). The West simply didn’t deliver enough equipment soon enough to make a lightening counterattack possible this year. 

As to whether the West was right or wrong to slow play, I guess we’ll never know. The West could have ended up losing key diplomatic support from NATO members and/or the public if it went “too fast.”  Or maybe dipping their feet first somehow dissuaded Russia from engaging in tactics that otherwise would have harmed more civilians. Impossible to know.

I am not yet ready to say Ukraine isn't going to accomplish something "remarkable" this year. Their methodical approach may allow them to locate another "weak point" that they can exploit. There is also an argument that September is a "good time" to make a significant attack because if you succeed greatly, the winter weather change will make it difficult for the Russians to counter-attack. Similarly, if the Ukrainian all-out offensive fails greatly, the onset of winter will limit Russia's ability to exploit the failure. It might be a situation of "We get one chance this year. Let us pick our spot and limit the downside risk". Obviously, that offensive probably won't win the war, as even if it should provoke a Russian collapse, the winter weather would set in and stop the bleeding.

One thing that does seem clear, however, is that Ukraine wasn’t just *this* close to succeeding in a big counterattack. Delivering one more type of weapon a little earlier wasn’t going to cut it. Ukraine needed a lot of F-16s, a lot of armored vehicles, DPICMs, ATACMS, etc, and it needed *all* of that a long time ago if it was going to take a large amount of territory this year.

Certainly having "a lot" of all of the above "a long time ago" would have helped a lot. It is also certain that absorbing "a lot more" into their armed forces would have been difficult. Ukraine is coming to grips with an enemy that is very tenacious and without morals. There are also many more of them than there are Ukrainians. It is undoubtedly daunting. In war, nothing is certain. The Ukraine and the West needs to plan for no significant victories this year while striving to achieve them.

People in Ukraine are going to suffer more as a result of this delay. More kids in occupied territories will be kidnapped and never returned. The Russians will commit more atrocities. But there is some hope that all the military planning will come together for the West next Spring.

I am afraid that is too soon. Had F-16 training started in April, maybe. In August, not a chance. A bunch of guys that has been in the airplane a maximum of 9 months isn't going to cut it, especially with bad flying weather for at least 5 of those months. How many flying hours will they have? The losses will mount due to inexperience and pilot error. Ukraine will have to stop taking risks and conserve it's scarce F-16 resources.