07-12-2023, 09:22 AM
(07-12-2023, 08:58 AM)GK3 Wrote: My big question is how is all going to end?Lots of people asking these questions, plus some additional ones. For me, the additional big question is:
Would Putin be willing to call off the hounds short of conquering Ukraine?
Ukraine's losses have been such I am not sure they would agree to anything short of return to pre 2014 borders.
Can Russian losses, both human and financial, cause Putin to be ousted and someone new to come in who is willing to end the war?
How long will the West continue to provide money and munitions?
The West seems better able to replace the equipment losses suffered by Ukraine that Russia is of replacing its equipment losses.
I just don't see this mess ending anytime soon.
How long can Ukraine fight with their country in a shambles? Clearly, they have done it longer than many thought they could, but at some point their morale/ability to continue fighting will falter. They need to "win" before that happens.
FWIW, I believe Ukraine has come to the conclusion it must take Crimea back to be a viable country. Without it, Russia will always have a choke-hold on their coastline and the Sea of Azov. Strategically, that is a recipe for failure. Conversely, if Ukraine holds Crimea, it can cut Russia off from the Sea of Azov and has the best naval base in the Black Sea. Fill that with a few modern combatants and they "own" the Black Sea. 6 or so U-212s or newer would do it all by themselves. That gives them pretty big advantages. IMO, that is the point where negotiations will be OK from the Ukrainian point of view. Can they get there? Who knows?
