07-12-2023, 08:54 AM
(07-12-2023, 02:53 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Those wanting to be more deliberate have sound reasoning. Putin and Russian oligarchs don’t want their lives to end in nuclear war, so do not believe fear of war with Russia -particularly after being ground down by Ukraine- is a valid concern. But Ukraine having acceptable political system and being ready to integrate with NATO military tactics is important. Tough to learn new tricks train with others when fighting a war, and nobody can predict when it will end, so no point of having a join timeline.Arguably, the situation in Ukraine is absolutely not viable. They are suffering mass casualties, their economy is shot, and they are reliant on the continued good will of countries that (in the Ukrainian view) have left them in the lurch at least twice before. How long can this go on? Obviously, Zelenskyy has to accept what Ukraine is getting, he has no choice. However, he will lobby and work for more. It is a tribute to his leadership Ukraine is doing as well as it is. However, he is fully aware that there are limits, and he really doesn't want to run up against them.
Zelenskyy will eventually accept what Ukraine is getting and if he truly wants in he will determine then address the concerns some members have about Ukraine NATO accession ASAP. The G7 NATO members are making some big spending commitments to help Ukraine fight in the interim, so even if Ukraine can’t get those things done ASAP, it’s still being given support to remain viable until it does.
NATO has shown that it really doesn't want to allow Ukraine or Georgia to be absorbed into the Russian Federation. It has also extended offers of membership that did not result in the admission of those countries, despite repeated requests from these countries. NATO has also demonstrated that it will not go to war to protect either one, at least so far. These facts are regarded with a jaundiced eye in Ukraine and Georgia, for obvious reasons. Can the NATO policy work? That is very much TBD.
Militarily, NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia has always been regarded as a "bridge too far". Nobody wanted to sign up for that, independent of any other "requirements" on their societies. That is, IMO, the most significant issue and it has never been addressed. Until it is, admitting them to NATO isn't going to go well.
