https://www.yahoo.com/news/turkey-extrac...18755.html
I think a good summary of the "state of play". The article does omit the fact that 1)Sweden has agreed "to help with the assertion of Türkiye into the EU" and 2) that the EU is opening negotiations with Türkiye to create lower customs barriers for trade with the EU. There also has been a significant effort regarding Greece and Cyprus ongoing issues with Türkiye. These are all important initiatives.
The EU absolutely does not want Türkiye in the EU, and when push comes to shove, Türkiye probably doesn't want to be in the EU. If one thinks Hungary is a sociopolitical problem, Türkiye would be 100 times that, partly because their large population would give them about 30% of the European parliament seats. Obviously there are serious "rule of law" issues in Türkiye. However, Türkiye is in economic distress and anything that the EU can do to increase trade (and confidence in the currency) is very valuable to Erdoğan.
It is important to note that as the article says, Erdoğan has an "escape hatch" that allows him to ensure he actually gets his F-16s and that Sweden does move against the PKK (at least to some "adequate" degree). There is no predicting whether and to what degree Erdoğan will try to extract more concessions with that "escape hatch". Hopefully, he realizes there are limits on what he can get away with and that he is very near those limits. If he goes too far, the pushback may wreck the deal, so let's hope he doesn't. Hopefully everybody else (The US congress, Sweden, the EU, and the Türkiye-PKK war in Syria) "stays in their lane" until it becomes a done deal.
UPDATE: Along these lines https://www.yahoo.com/news/analysis-turk...27711.html
I think a good summary of the "state of play". The article does omit the fact that 1)Sweden has agreed "to help with the assertion of Türkiye into the EU" and 2) that the EU is opening negotiations with Türkiye to create lower customs barriers for trade with the EU. There also has been a significant effort regarding Greece and Cyprus ongoing issues with Türkiye. These are all important initiatives.
The EU absolutely does not want Türkiye in the EU, and when push comes to shove, Türkiye probably doesn't want to be in the EU. If one thinks Hungary is a sociopolitical problem, Türkiye would be 100 times that, partly because their large population would give them about 30% of the European parliament seats. Obviously there are serious "rule of law" issues in Türkiye. However, Türkiye is in economic distress and anything that the EU can do to increase trade (and confidence in the currency) is very valuable to Erdoğan.
It is important to note that as the article says, Erdoğan has an "escape hatch" that allows him to ensure he actually gets his F-16s and that Sweden does move against the PKK (at least to some "adequate" degree). There is no predicting whether and to what degree Erdoğan will try to extract more concessions with that "escape hatch". Hopefully, he realizes there are limits on what he can get away with and that he is very near those limits. If he goes too far, the pushback may wreck the deal, so let's hope he doesn't. Hopefully everybody else (The US congress, Sweden, the EU, and the Türkiye-PKK war in Syria) "stays in their lane" until it becomes a done deal.
UPDATE: Along these lines https://www.yahoo.com/news/analysis-turk...27711.html