[Goose]

Maybe some people in Sweden are annoyed but I don't think they're going to withdraw their bid to join.

I would not wager a lot of money on that. Annoyed is much too gentle a description. As we are witnessing, Erdoğan can be pretty stubborn and in our opinion unreasonable. I can tell you from hard experience, so can the Swedish government. As a public example, consider the Kockums - ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems fiasco and the Swedish government's actions in that regard. For a very long time public opinion in Sweden was against joining NATO. IMO it takes much less than most people realize to return to that status quo ante.

Maybe not this year, but soon they will be in NATO and every indication is that until the accession happens, Sweden will be contributing to Ukraine and NATO defense in a similar way as if they had been a full member.

I hope so, but IMO the longer it takes the less probable it is. First, the view you present that Sweden is "effectively in NATO" already argues against accepting the additional responsibilities that actually being in NATO entails. This is especially true for Sweden who for years had relied on keeping it's non-aligned status as a means of having Russia basically leave them alone. It probably never really worked, but the Swedes thought it did, so they liked that. As a member of NATO, if a war breaks out in the Baltic, they get attacked for sure, even if they don't intend to respond to an Article 5 invocation.

Sweden has always been willing to spend money on defense, and their actions regarding Ukraine reflect that. What they HAVEN'T been willing to do is give up on their own military's C3I and technological uniqueness. They aren't cleared for lots of the NATO info and NATO isn't cleared for lots of their info. That hasn't changed and won't until they are a member. It also means surrendering some diplomatic leverage as a "neutral", which in the area of military sales is very problematic. As part of NATO, they are going to have to do so. That isn't going to be near as easy as it sounds. If they can get almost all the benefits without having to do that, they will gladly accept. NATO just has to hope Erdoğan folds before the Swedes decide exactly that.

[Goose]

Maybe some people in Sweden are annoyed but I don't think they're going to withdraw their bid to join.

I would not wager a lot of money on that. Annoyed is much too gentle a description. As we are witnessing, Erdoğan can be pretty stubborn and in our opinion unreasonable. I can tell you from hard experience, so can the Swedish government. As a public example, consider the Kockums - ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems fiasco and the Swedish government's actions in that regard. For a very long time public opinion in Sweden was against joining NATO. IMO it takes much less than most people realize to return to that status quo ante.

Maybe not this year, but soon they will be in NATO and every indication is that until the accession happens, Sweden will be contributing to Ukraine and NATO defense in a similar way as if they had been a full member.

I hope so, but IMO the longer it takes the less probable it is. First, the view you present that Sweden is "effectively in NATO" already argues against accepting the additional responsibilities that actually being in NATO entails. This is especially true for Sweden who for years had relied on keeping it's non-aligned status as a means of having Russia basically leave them alone. It probably never really worked, but the Swedes thought it did, so they liked that. As a member of NATO, if a war breaks out in the Baltic, they get attacked for sure, even if they don't intend to respond to an Article 5 invocation.

Sweden has always been willing to spend money on defense, and their actions regarding Ukraine reflect that. What they HAVEN'T been willing to do is give up on their own military's C3I and technological uniqueness. They aren't cleared for lots of the NATO info and NATO isn't cleared for lots of their info. That hasn't changed and won't until they are a member. It also means surrendering some diplomatic leverage as a "neutral", which in the area of military sales is very problematic. As part of NATO, they are going to have to do so. That isn't going to be near as easy as it sounds. If they can get almost all the benefits without having to do that, they will gladly accept. NATO just has to hope Erdoğan folds before the Swedes decide exactly that.