06-24-2023, 05:21 PM
Well, Prigozhin to Belarus. A "deal" was quickly "brokered" by Lukashenko. Anybody who believes that is the whole story probably has also bought several bridges. There are lots of possible scenarios. One of them is that Prigozhin started a coup expecting to get lots of support from the Russian military/people. When that didn't happen he realized he was bound to lose and therefore "took a deal" and is moving to Belarus. IMO, this is the least likely scenario. Under those conditions, his life won't be worth a farthing. If Putin doesn't kill him, Lukashenko will. Why would Lukashenko host a guy who has a record of staging a coup, given that he is much weaker than Putin and therefore an easier target? No way is he doing this "on his own".
A more likely scenario IMHO is that Putin sent Prigozhin to Belarus so he could attack Ukraine from the north with a newly constructed Wagner PMC. Since he is in Belarus, he won't be subject to the Russian military, so he gets what he wanted there. Lukashenko doesn't have to keep fending off Russian requests to attack Ukraine, because Wagner is doing it, not him. It also gives Russia a lever to pull if Belarus decides to go it's own way, as some of the (foolish in retrospect) people in Belarus were tweeting. They have "outed" themselves, and better have an escape plan already in action.
Of course, it could also be that Russia agreed to give back to Prigozhin the money of his that they "located" and were going to keep. That may have been the "price" of him giving up the coup and that he intends to leave Belarus ASAP and go to someplace in Africa/Middle East where he and his money will be safe. This, and other strange things that none of us know about, may have been the actual "driver" in these events. As I said, things in Russia are never as they seem.
A more likely scenario IMHO is that Putin sent Prigozhin to Belarus so he could attack Ukraine from the north with a newly constructed Wagner PMC. Since he is in Belarus, he won't be subject to the Russian military, so he gets what he wanted there. Lukashenko doesn't have to keep fending off Russian requests to attack Ukraine, because Wagner is doing it, not him. It also gives Russia a lever to pull if Belarus decides to go it's own way, as some of the (foolish in retrospect) people in Belarus were tweeting. They have "outed" themselves, and better have an escape plan already in action.
Of course, it could also be that Russia agreed to give back to Prigozhin the money of his that they "located" and were going to keep. That may have been the "price" of him giving up the coup and that he intends to leave Belarus ASAP and go to someplace in Africa/Middle East where he and his money will be safe. This, and other strange things that none of us know about, may have been the actual "driver" in these events. As I said, things in Russia are never as they seem.