[Goose]

I would caution against calling this “awesome” or entertainment, or being glib.

In 24 hours, a person like Prigozhin could be in command of the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. Long-term instability in Russia could  lead to losing track of (or selling, or giving away) Russia’s vast stores of weapons of mass destruction.

Civil way could lead to the deaths of thousands if not millions of innocent people.

The Russians are unique, and have never been democratically ruled (unless you believe that the People's Democratic anything is, in fact, a democracy). Even under Yeltsin, the transition without Western aid, lead to the kleptocracy we see today. State controlled enterprises were corruptly raided. The Russian people saw what was happening and rejected poorly implemented republican or democratic systems that lead to Chechnya in favor of strength. 

A group of mercenaries is not some democratizing force. There is no indication that the Wagner group has any pro-Western bias. They were pushed against the wall and responded. They also have a score to settle with the US for that incident in Syria. I'll wait to see how this plays out, but there are plenty of reasons to be cautious.

All very true. This is the bad vs the bad. No obvious way to select the "less bad" IMO. Prigozhin should have no chance, but given the sclerotic response by the MOD anything may be possible. I will believe we truly have a civil war here when we see some significant casualty figures. So far, it could still be posturing. IMO Prigozhin can't run the country. He is well suited to running a mercenary force, but I doubt he has the political ability to herd the cats that make up the Russian state. That is not to say he won't get to try. Yeltsin didn't have the ability either, as events demonstrated, but he too got the chance. IMO, no matter what happens in this "contest", it isn't good for Russia, at least in any near term sense. There is going to be an increase in state oppression no matter who prevails, and if nobody prevails the resulting fragmentation and anarchy can indeed be seriously bad for the world. The control of Russia's nuclear forces may indeed be "at risk" if a military conflict breaks out.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/freaked-russi...45733.html
Interesting take from various random people. Nobody seems to really know what is happening, and certainly not why.

[Goose]

I would caution against calling this “awesome” or entertainment, or being glib.

In 24 hours, a person like Prigozhin could be in command of the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. Long-term instability in Russia could  lead to losing track of (or selling, or giving away) Russia’s vast stores of weapons of mass destruction.

Civil way could lead to the deaths of thousands if not millions of innocent people.

The Russians are unique, and have never been democratically ruled (unless you believe that the People's Democratic anything is, in fact, a democracy). Even under Yeltsin, the transition without Western aid, lead to the kleptocracy we see today. State controlled enterprises were corruptly raided. The Russian people saw what was happening and rejected poorly implemented republican or democratic systems that lead to Chechnya in favor of strength. 

A group of mercenaries is not some democratizing force. There is no indication that the Wagner group has any pro-Western bias. They were pushed against the wall and responded. They also have a score to settle with the US for that incident in Syria. I'll wait to see how this plays out, but there are plenty of reasons to be cautious.

All very true. This is the bad vs the bad. No obvious way to select the "less bad" IMO. Prigozhin should have no chance, but given the sclerotic response by the MOD anything may be possible. I will believe we truly have a civil war here when we see some significant casualty figures. So far, it could still be posturing. IMO Prigozhin can't run the country. He is well suited to running a mercenary force, but I doubt he has the political ability to herd the cats that make up the Russian state. That is not to say he won't get to try. Yeltsin didn't have the ability either, as events demonstrated, but he too got the chance. IMO, no matter what happens in this "contest", it isn't good for Russia, at least in any near term sense. There is going to be an increase in state oppression no matter who prevails, and if nobody prevails the resulting fragmentation and anarchy can indeed be seriously bad for the world. The control of Russia's nuclear forces may indeed be "at risk" if a military conflict breaks out.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/freaked-russi...45733.html
Interesting take from various random people. Nobody seems to really know what is happening, and certainly not why.