[dabigv13]

We know the Russian ORBAT decently well. Click through the link below for a good article as well. Of course we don't know the actual condition of many of these units. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1668999661137403911?s=20[/tweet]

Ukrainian less certain and can shift more quickly due to interior lines. We know at least one of the nine new brigades is operating in Velyka Novosilka axis and one on Mala Tokmachka axis. Haven't seen them really near Bakhmut or Luhansk.

Likely some explanation for relative success for Ukraine on Velyka Novosilka axis is less concentration of Russian forces and being right where the Russian Center and South army groupings responsibilities meet up. The operation where we saw all the destroyed Leopards and Bradleys near Mala Tokmachka involved (per Russian reports) 5 different Russian units including GRU Spetznaz, whereas only two Russian regular units seemed to be in the area of all the villages near Velyka Novosilka that Ukraine reclaimed (the above link lists 4 units but I think there was only 2 initially in area).

Like others I think Ukraine is still in a mostly shaping phase. Lots of FPV drone videos and artillery strikes on Russian artillery, mine laying vehicles, ammo resupply trucks. They have been assaulting Russian positions but not with very large groupings, trying to get Russian reinforcements moving so they can get a sense of Russian defensive plans and find weaker spots for coming larger assaults. 

This was a clear eyed article on the challenge for Ukraine.

https://cepa.org/article/twitter-bubbles...offensive/

In other words, Ukraine is trying what no single NATO country has done since the alliance was created in 1949: to conduct large-scale combined arms maneuver operations against a near-peer or peer adversary. It is no exaggeration to say that, at present, no NATO country, with the exception — perhaps — of the US, possesses sufficient capabilities and resources to conduct an operation like this. To put this in perspective, the only time some NATO members fought a large-scale land campaign against a conventional – albeit much weaker – adversary during Operation Iraqi Freedom against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 2003, they enjoyed total air supremacy.

Ukraine has substantial advantages in morale and force quality. I think the supply situation for Russian frontline troops will become increasingly an issue and Ukraine will eventually make some big gains.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/stat...77216?s=20[/tweet]

Would be really great if the railroad was damaged here.

[dabigv13]

We know the Russian ORBAT decently well. Click through the link below for a good article as well. Of course we don't know the actual condition of many of these units. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1668999661137403911?s=20[/tweet]

Ukrainian less certain and can shift more quickly due to interior lines. We know at least one of the nine new brigades is operating in Velyka Novosilka axis and one on Mala Tokmachka axis. Haven't seen them really near Bakhmut or Luhansk.

Likely some explanation for relative success for Ukraine on Velyka Novosilka axis is less concentration of Russian forces and being right where the Russian Center and South army groupings responsibilities meet up. The operation where we saw all the destroyed Leopards and Bradleys near Mala Tokmachka involved (per Russian reports) 5 different Russian units including GRU Spetznaz, whereas only two Russian regular units seemed to be in the area of all the villages near Velyka Novosilka that Ukraine reclaimed (the above link lists 4 units but I think there was only 2 initially in area).

Like others I think Ukraine is still in a mostly shaping phase. Lots of FPV drone videos and artillery strikes on Russian artillery, mine laying vehicles, ammo resupply trucks. They have been assaulting Russian positions but not with very large groupings, trying to get Russian reinforcements moving so they can get a sense of Russian defensive plans and find weaker spots for coming larger assaults. 

This was a clear eyed article on the challenge for Ukraine.

https://cepa.org/article/twitter-bubbles...offensive/

In other words, Ukraine is trying what no single NATO country has done since the alliance was created in 1949: to conduct large-scale combined arms maneuver operations against a near-peer or peer adversary. It is no exaggeration to say that, at present, no NATO country, with the exception — perhaps — of the US, possesses sufficient capabilities and resources to conduct an operation like this. To put this in perspective, the only time some NATO members fought a large-scale land campaign against a conventional – albeit much weaker – adversary during Operation Iraqi Freedom against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 2003, they enjoyed total air supremacy.

Ukraine has substantial advantages in morale and force quality. I think the supply situation for Russian frontline troops will become increasingly an issue and Ukraine will eventually make some big gains.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/stat...77216?s=20[/tweet]

Would be really great if the railroad was damaged here.