[GK3]

With the caveat that the fog of war is thick right now, does it not seem like the front line is largely stalemated?

I don't think it is "stalemated" as such because Ukraine is still doing things. Supposedly they have committed only 3 of their newly trained combined arms brigades. The question remains, what next? Ukraine has the initiative still. What they do with it is TBD.

My guess is that Ukraine is trying to attrit Russian forces in the region as much as possible prior to launching larger pushes. They’ve launched some RIFs, perhaps with the goal of drawing Russian reserves towards the front lines and into artillery/Himars range. This is supported by both Ukraines published Russian casualties (taken with a grain of salt) and videos showing a lot of Russian arty casualties. They may also be hoping to trigger counterattacks with the idea that they’d rather face the enemy while defending newly taken lines then assaulting those same troops while they play defense. 

This could continue for a while, so long as Ukraine feels that time and attrition is on their side. Eventually they may start to feel the ticking clock in the political need to make meaningful progress before winter or in shrinking stockpiles of shells/ammo. 

Lot of chatter today about increasing new Ukrainian EW tech on the front lines disrupting Russian drones. I have to think they wouldn’t deploy that until something is imminent. my limited understanding of EW is that is often a cat a mouse game, with short lived effects due to software based counters. As such, you would think the Ukrainians would save that ace in the hole for an opportune moment.

I agree with your analysis of what Ukraine is doing. I wouldn't be surprised to see them rotate their combined arms battalions to give as many as possible a chance to "shake out the kinks" and find out what their strengths and weaknesses are ("blooding" the troops). It will also build their confidence in their new organization and equipment, as well as find out first hand what their equipment doesn't do well. I also agree that the political pressure exists and will become an issue.

One other interesting effect is that Russia has indeed moved some troops from the "south" up towards Donetsk Oblast to "plug some holes in their defense". This is something I think Ukraine wants to see, allowing them to hit moving formations and also to pull troops out of fortified areas into more hastily constructed defensive positions in unfamiliar areas. Getting the Russians to "thrash", if possible, is a good thing.

The EW improvements Ukraine is fielding may or may not indicate they are "close" to major action. Indeed it is a field where one side responds to what the other side does, but the development cycle time is significant. In so far as western sanctions "work", Russia will have a more difficult time fielding new systems in response to Ukrainian activities even if their R&D is "adequate". It often also takes quite a bit of time to build the adequate stock of EW gear required to equip large formations and be effective. On top of that, both sides are always developing their "next gen" systems that will not be affected by what they predict their opponents are building. Often you must deploy your systems while they are still useful because you know the other side is getting  close to their next upgrade :-).

Ukraine has shown much agility in the EW field, so I think they have an advantage in the development cycle. However, they have a lot on their plate and IMO they perhaps got a bit complacent about their drone's successes. The small commercial drones are easy to jam, so it makes sense both sides now have a big problem using them. It should have happened much sooner, but neither side expected desperation would lead to such a level of adaptation. The next "cycle" should take a much longer time because it won't be so much COTS.

IMO this article really nails the current situation:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-count...21011.html

Ukraine is clearly still very worried about Russian air and is having trouble with Russian reconnaissance drones. The decision to utilize smaller operational units has been a typical Ukrainian response to these problems but it works against having sufficient mass to break through fortified positions. Ukraine is trying to work out how to do that. It is easier in the Donbas, because there is cover available in the terrain (at least in many areas). In the south, particularly in Kherson Oblast, there is no cover. They can see you, and that is a big problem if Russian Frontal Aviation is working.

Ukraine's constant pressure on Bakhmut seems to have caused Russia to move some of its best units to the Bakhmut to prevent furthr advance of Ukrainian units.  This may well play into Ukrainian plans by weakening a section of their defense that will make them more vulnerable to attack.  The more the Ukraine forces can get the Russians to play shuffle the troops, the better off they will be when they make a serious effort at breaking through.  
Putin continues to rattle the Nuclear Threat and seems unwilling to up the draft and declare martial law.  Should Ukraine achieve a breakthrough that threatens their lines of communication with Crimea I wonder what he will do.

[GK3]

With the caveat that the fog of war is thick right now, does it not seem like the front line is largely stalemated?

I don't think it is "stalemated" as such because Ukraine is still doing things. Supposedly they have committed only 3 of their newly trained combined arms brigades. The question remains, what next? Ukraine has the initiative still. What they do with it is TBD.

My guess is that Ukraine is trying to attrit Russian forces in the region as much as possible prior to launching larger pushes. They’ve launched some RIFs, perhaps with the goal of drawing Russian reserves towards the front lines and into artillery/Himars range. This is supported by both Ukraines published Russian casualties (taken with a grain of salt) and videos showing a lot of Russian arty casualties. They may also be hoping to trigger counterattacks with the idea that they’d rather face the enemy while defending newly taken lines then assaulting those same troops while they play defense. 

This could continue for a while, so long as Ukraine feels that time and attrition is on their side. Eventually they may start to feel the ticking clock in the political need to make meaningful progress before winter or in shrinking stockpiles of shells/ammo. 

Lot of chatter today about increasing new Ukrainian EW tech on the front lines disrupting Russian drones. I have to think they wouldn’t deploy that until something is imminent. my limited understanding of EW is that is often a cat a mouse game, with short lived effects due to software based counters. As such, you would think the Ukrainians would save that ace in the hole for an opportune moment.

I agree with your analysis of what Ukraine is doing. I wouldn't be surprised to see them rotate their combined arms battalions to give as many as possible a chance to "shake out the kinks" and find out what their strengths and weaknesses are ("blooding" the troops). It will also build their confidence in their new organization and equipment, as well as find out first hand what their equipment doesn't do well. I also agree that the political pressure exists and will become an issue.

One other interesting effect is that Russia has indeed moved some troops from the "south" up towards Donetsk Oblast to "plug some holes in their defense". This is something I think Ukraine wants to see, allowing them to hit moving formations and also to pull troops out of fortified areas into more hastily constructed defensive positions in unfamiliar areas. Getting the Russians to "thrash", if possible, is a good thing.

The EW improvements Ukraine is fielding may or may not indicate they are "close" to major action. Indeed it is a field where one side responds to what the other side does, but the development cycle time is significant. In so far as western sanctions "work", Russia will have a more difficult time fielding new systems in response to Ukrainian activities even if their R&D is "adequate". It often also takes quite a bit of time to build the adequate stock of EW gear required to equip large formations and be effective. On top of that, both sides are always developing their "next gen" systems that will not be affected by what they predict their opponents are building. Often you must deploy your systems while they are still useful because you know the other side is getting  close to their next upgrade :-).

Ukraine has shown much agility in the EW field, so I think they have an advantage in the development cycle. However, they have a lot on their plate and IMO they perhaps got a bit complacent about their drone's successes. The small commercial drones are easy to jam, so it makes sense both sides now have a big problem using them. It should have happened much sooner, but neither side expected desperation would lead to such a level of adaptation. The next "cycle" should take a much longer time because it won't be so much COTS.

IMO this article really nails the current situation:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-count...21011.html

Ukraine is clearly still very worried about Russian air and is having trouble with Russian reconnaissance drones. The decision to utilize smaller operational units has been a typical Ukrainian response to these problems but it works against having sufficient mass to break through fortified positions. Ukraine is trying to work out how to do that. It is easier in the Donbas, because there is cover available in the terrain (at least in many areas). In the south, particularly in Kherson Oblast, there is no cover. They can see you, and that is a big problem if Russian Frontal Aviation is working.

Ukraine's constant pressure on Bakhmut seems to have caused Russia to move some of its best units to the Bakhmut to prevent furthr advance of Ukrainian units.  This may well play into Ukrainian plans by weakening a section of their defense that will make them more vulnerable to attack.  The more the Ukraine forces can get the Russians to play shuffle the troops, the better off they will be when they make a serious effort at breaking through.  
Putin continues to rattle the Nuclear Threat and seems unwilling to up the draft and declare martial law.  Should Ukraine achieve a breakthrough that threatens their lines of communication with Crimea I wonder what he will do.