[Goose]

This is all quite flat, open farm land.

A good article by Ben Hodges
https://cepa.org/article/think-ukraines-...-brigades/

The  flat, open farm land description is accurate and important. That is the kind of terrain that is considered "good tank country" in Ukraine. It is also good country for Russian Frontal Aviation to use standoff weapons to wreck the Ukrainian armor. Fortunately, while Russian ground attacks by aircraft are somewhat more frequent these days, it hasn't become a big problem for Ukraine. That is something Ukraine obviously has been (rightly IMO) concerned about.

OTOH, we also have not seen the multi-brigade, 250 armored vehicle attack that Ben Hodges is referring to. That type of attack is what I think we all expected to see, but I am coming around to the idea that maybe Ukraine has something else in mind. It might be that Ukraine believes Russia is vulnerable to smaller, sharp attacks against many carefully chosen points. They are basically jab, jab, jab, jab instead of throwing haymakers. It may be that Ukraine is making Russia bleed, sapping their energy, and destroying their resolve. We may see a haymaker eventually, but I think Ukraine just isn't going to risk that right now.

Ukraine is also keeping pressure on in the Donbas. If Ukraine can surround significant Russian forces in Bakhmut, that would be a pretty big tactical opportunity for Ukraine and a public relations disaster for Russia. IMO, Donbas isn't the place to win the war, but maybe Ukraine "knows something" that I do not. Either way, it may fix the Russian military's attention in the wrong place, and at the opportune moment Ukraine can throw their haymaker in the south. I am actually expecting a combination there, first in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and subsequently in Kherson Oblast. Hopefully, Ukraine can get that far. IMO Ukraine really wants to break the land bridge and be on the northern borders of Crimea by August. If they can do that, a winter pause wouldn't be a disaster. If the Ukraine can't accomplish this by about August, they are going to give Russia a pause to refit and start new offensives while they still hold a reasonable tactical position in the south. We really don't want that to happen.

[Goose]

This is all quite flat, open farm land.

A good article by Ben Hodges
https://cepa.org/article/think-ukraines-...-brigades/

The  flat, open farm land description is accurate and important. That is the kind of terrain that is considered "good tank country" in Ukraine. It is also good country for Russian Frontal Aviation to use standoff weapons to wreck the Ukrainian armor. Fortunately, while Russian ground attacks by aircraft are somewhat more frequent these days, it hasn't become a big problem for Ukraine. That is something Ukraine obviously has been (rightly IMO) concerned about.

OTOH, we also have not seen the multi-brigade, 250 armored vehicle attack that Ben Hodges is referring to. That type of attack is what I think we all expected to see, but I am coming around to the idea that maybe Ukraine has something else in mind. It might be that Ukraine believes Russia is vulnerable to smaller, sharp attacks against many carefully chosen points. They are basically jab, jab, jab, jab instead of throwing haymakers. It may be that Ukraine is making Russia bleed, sapping their energy, and destroying their resolve. We may see a haymaker eventually, but I think Ukraine just isn't going to risk that right now.

Ukraine is also keeping pressure on in the Donbas. If Ukraine can surround significant Russian forces in Bakhmut, that would be a pretty big tactical opportunity for Ukraine and a public relations disaster for Russia. IMO, Donbas isn't the place to win the war, but maybe Ukraine "knows something" that I do not. Either way, it may fix the Russian military's attention in the wrong place, and at the opportune moment Ukraine can throw their haymaker in the south. I am actually expecting a combination there, first in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and subsequently in Kherson Oblast. Hopefully, Ukraine can get that far. IMO Ukraine really wants to break the land bridge and be on the northern borders of Crimea by August. If they can do that, a winter pause wouldn't be a disaster. If the Ukraine can't accomplish this by about August, they are going to give Russia a pause to refit and start new offensives while they still hold a reasonable tactical position in the south. We really don't want that to happen.