[Goose]

The timing is certainly auspicious, especially as the Ukrainian counterattack is kicking off. 

Supposedly local residents heard explosions overnight. The fact Russian media is downplaying the giant humanitarian disaster in their ostensible new territory rather than playing it up also seems to give away their culpability.

I think them blowing the dam is the most parsimonious explanation. Also interestingly, Russia built most of their fortifications above the expected flood levels. One of the few examples perhaps of good Russian foresight in this war.

Most defenses perhaps, but certainly not all. Their minefields on the banks are also destroyed. Normally, in a "sane" world, asking who benefits would point in most cases to who did it. That said, in this case it is unclear that anybody benefits much.

On the whole though, I don't think it affects things much in terms of Ukraine's counterattack. A large scale crossing over the river was never very likely, though it does maybe simplify Russian defensive planning.

Really? IMO a large scale crossing of the river was and is very likely. If Ukraine wants to take back the south of Kherson Oblast and enter Crimea, said river crossing has to happen. It may be that Ukraine intends to exert pressure from Zaporhizhia to facilitate that crossing, but cross they must. Logistic support to attacks in south Kherson Oblast requires it. Fortunately, the flood damage will not persist long enough to be operationally significant.
If Russia did blow the dam, it was a strategic error. They should have waited until either they were at risk of losing the position there or Ukraine had started to cross downstream of the dam. Blowing it now has removed that threat consideration. Arguably, it is a big advantage to Ukraine that they don't have to worry about that when they do cross.

For the first time a new western equipped brigade was in action, the 37th, operating French AMX10 tanks, in Donetsk. I think it's a clear sign the counterattack has started in earnest now, and the volume of artillery and rocket fire is supposedly the most ever from Ukraine in the war thus far. Fires in the Russian side of the front are extensive in Zaporhizhia and Donetsk on satellite imaging. Ukraine has been pretty tight lipped thus far, but hopefully we get good news soon.

Certainly agree about the "good news" wishes. Ukraine is going to be as tricky as possible, so I don't think we can read much into their opening moves.

[Goose]

The timing is certainly auspicious, especially as the Ukrainian counterattack is kicking off. 

Supposedly local residents heard explosions overnight. The fact Russian media is downplaying the giant humanitarian disaster in their ostensible new territory rather than playing it up also seems to give away their culpability.

I think them blowing the dam is the most parsimonious explanation. Also interestingly, Russia built most of their fortifications above the expected flood levels. One of the few examples perhaps of good Russian foresight in this war.

Most defenses perhaps, but certainly not all. Their minefields on the banks are also destroyed. Normally, in a "sane" world, asking who benefits would point in most cases to who did it. That said, in this case it is unclear that anybody benefits much.

On the whole though, I don't think it affects things much in terms of Ukraine's counterattack. A large scale crossing over the river was never very likely, though it does maybe simplify Russian defensive planning.

Really? IMO a large scale crossing of the river was and is very likely. If Ukraine wants to take back the south of Kherson Oblast and enter Crimea, said river crossing has to happen. It may be that Ukraine intends to exert pressure from Zaporhizhia to facilitate that crossing, but cross they must. Logistic support to attacks in south Kherson Oblast requires it. Fortunately, the flood damage will not persist long enough to be operationally significant.
If Russia did blow the dam, it was a strategic error. They should have waited until either they were at risk of losing the position there or Ukraine had started to cross downstream of the dam. Blowing it now has removed that threat consideration. Arguably, it is a big advantage to Ukraine that they don't have to worry about that when they do cross.

For the first time a new western equipped brigade was in action, the 37th, operating French AMX10 tanks, in Donetsk. I think it's a clear sign the counterattack has started in earnest now, and the volume of artillery and rocket fire is supposedly the most ever from Ukraine in the war thus far. Fires in the Russian side of the front are extensive in Zaporhizhia and Donetsk on satellite imaging. Ukraine has been pretty tight lipped thus far, but hopefully we get good news soon.

Certainly agree about the "good news" wishes. Ukraine is going to be as tricky as possible, so I don't think we can read much into their opening moves.