[dabigv13]

The timing is certainly auspicious, especially as the Ukrainian counterattack is kicking off. 

Supposedly local residents heard explosions overnight. The fact Russian media is downplaying the giant humanitarian disaster in their ostensible new territory rather than playing it up also seems to give away their culpability.

I think them blowing the dam is the most parsimonious explanation. Also interestingly, Russia built most of their fortifications above the expected flood levels. One of the few examples perhaps of good Russian foresight in this war.

On the whole though, I don't think it affects things much in terms of Ukraine's counterattack. A large scale crossing over the river was never very likely, though it does maybe simplify Russian defensive planning.

For the first time a new western equipped brigade was in action, the 37th, operating French AMX10 tanks, in Donetsk. I think it's a clear sign the counterattack has started in earnest now, and the volume of artillery and rocket fire is supposedly the most ever from Ukraine in the war thus far. Fires in the Russian side of the front are extensive in Zaporhizhia and Donetsk on satellite imaging. Ukraine has been pretty tight lipped thus far, but hopefully we get good news soon.

[dabigv13]

The timing is certainly auspicious, especially as the Ukrainian counterattack is kicking off. 

Supposedly local residents heard explosions overnight. The fact Russian media is downplaying the giant humanitarian disaster in their ostensible new territory rather than playing it up also seems to give away their culpability.

I think them blowing the dam is the most parsimonious explanation. Also interestingly, Russia built most of their fortifications above the expected flood levels. One of the few examples perhaps of good Russian foresight in this war.

On the whole though, I don't think it affects things much in terms of Ukraine's counterattack. A large scale crossing over the river was never very likely, though it does maybe simplify Russian defensive planning.

For the first time a new western equipped brigade was in action, the 37th, operating French AMX10 tanks, in Donetsk. I think it's a clear sign the counterattack has started in earnest now, and the volume of artillery and rocket fire is supposedly the most ever from Ukraine in the war thus far. Fires in the Russian side of the front are extensive in Zaporhizhia and Donetsk on satellite imaging. Ukraine has been pretty tight lipped thus far, but hopefully we get good news soon.