[Goose]

I didn't realize that there are 2 seemingly separate breaks in the dam.  (See 0:44 in the OSINTtechnical video above.)

Would that be reasonably expected for a structural failure from too much water too long?

Maybe they were just trying to blow up the power plant but shockwaves also fractured an already weakened dam?

As those of you who have visited the power plant at the base of Hoover Dam can attest, the penstocks carrying water from the dam to the turbines operate under very great pressure, and literally the whole assembly shakes. The forces involved can throw a 700 ton turbine high into the air if not properly controlled. It happened once. The power station requires maintenance to ensure things do not corrode away and "bad things" happen.

I have no way of knowing, but I suspect nobody was maintaining the power station. We also know it had been damaged in the fighting. It is not beyond possibility that the entire power house simply exploded outward when a valve failed. Not saying it did, I can't know one way or another. After the dam is compromised to that degree, nobody can say what forces will be involved. Other parts of the dam might be undermined by water flowing around the blowout. Unless there is a good video somewhere, we may never know the exact mechanics of what happened.

Of course, explosives placed in the dam could start that process as well. The ultimate in bad maintenance. Blowing up solid concrete dam from the outside is relatively hard. Blowing it up from the inside in places you can let lots of water under very high pressure in is lots easier.

[Goose]

I didn't realize that there are 2 seemingly separate breaks in the dam.  (See 0:44 in the OSINTtechnical video above.)

Would that be reasonably expected for a structural failure from too much water too long?

Maybe they were just trying to blow up the power plant but shockwaves also fractured an already weakened dam?

As those of you who have visited the power plant at the base of Hoover Dam can attest, the penstocks carrying water from the dam to the turbines operate under very great pressure, and literally the whole assembly shakes. The forces involved can throw a 700 ton turbine high into the air if not properly controlled. It happened once. The power station requires maintenance to ensure things do not corrode away and "bad things" happen.

I have no way of knowing, but I suspect nobody was maintaining the power station. We also know it had been damaged in the fighting. It is not beyond possibility that the entire power house simply exploded outward when a valve failed. Not saying it did, I can't know one way or another. After the dam is compromised to that degree, nobody can say what forces will be involved. Other parts of the dam might be undermined by water flowing around the blowout. Unless there is a good video somewhere, we may never know the exact mechanics of what happened.

Of course, explosives placed in the dam could start that process as well. The ultimate in bad maintenance. Blowing up solid concrete dam from the outside is relatively hard. Blowing it up from the inside in places you can let lots of water under very high pressure in is lots easier.