06-07-2023, 06:08 AM
It does now appear Russia blew the dam.
The road access to where the dam was compromised was cut off from the Ukraine side, meaning only Russians had access to it. Second, Russia had closed the releases on the dam to increase the amount of water being held back by the dam in the days before it was blown, to maximize the amount of water release.
Most of the water has flooded and/or compromised water supplies in Russian-held territory, including Crimea. The flooding will subside in a week or two, but the damage to Russian held positions can't be undone.
Russia may have held off a Ukrainian attack in the short run with the water rise, but hard to see how Russian efforts to hold southern Ukraine won't be hurt more than Ukraine's effort to take it back, in the longer term. And in this case shorter term is a week or two, and longer is more than that.
The road access to where the dam was compromised was cut off from the Ukraine side, meaning only Russians had access to it. Second, Russia had closed the releases on the dam to increase the amount of water being held back by the dam in the days before it was blown, to maximize the amount of water release.
Most of the water has flooded and/or compromised water supplies in Russian-held territory, including Crimea. The flooding will subside in a week or two, but the damage to Russian held positions can't be undone.
Russia may have held off a Ukrainian attack in the short run with the water rise, but hard to see how Russian efforts to hold southern Ukraine won't be hurt more than Ukraine's effort to take it back, in the longer term. And in this case shorter term is a week or two, and longer is more than that.