[Goose]

Goose, are you factoring in the political dynamics inside Russia into your perspective? Wars are not typically ended on the battlefield. 

I saw a member of the Duma speaking with Russian propagandists who was saying the war is not accomplishing anything and is a failure. Don't know if this guy is isolated or if he represents a shift in perspective, how it is spreading, etc.

All I know is Russia is looking like it is devolving into infighting, with insurgency, Wagner being attacked by Russians. Kadyrovites wanting to attack Wagners. Russian military shelling its own territory. It's a mess.

I just don't think this thing is ultimately going to be decided by who gains what territory as much as political support for the war collapsing into chaos in Russia that makes ending it the only option. Of course, I don't think Putin will be the one to end it, nor can he be trusted to be.

It is difficult to "know" anything about what is "really" going on inside Russia. IMO we get a lot of wishful thinking in the press. You can find people, sometimes important people, in any country that support almost any point of view. However, Russia is a totalitarian state. It has lost some of the "trappings" of the old Soviet Union, but it is still a totalitarian state. Russians have the ability to go completely Sgt. Schultz on virtually any issue. They don't "take sides" on anything until 1) they have no choice, or 2) they become convinced they have identified the "winning" side, and even then they will try to maintain contacts with the side they rejected, "just in case".

History has shown that predicting political change in Russia is virtually impossible. Many times, people predicted that the Tsar couldn't survive event X, and then he did survive event X. Nobody predicted the "fall of the Soviet Union". Everybody thought Yeltsin was a clown, which he was, but he ended up running Russia. You just don't know. For that reason, I think we need to assume that for Ukraine and Belarus to have any future as independent nations, Russia must be militarily defeated. IMO they won't quit until they are in a situation where they virtually can no longer fight, because nobody in Russia is going to risk being the one who says they can't win. It has to be so self evident nobody has to say it.

[Goose]

Goose, are you factoring in the political dynamics inside Russia into your perspective? Wars are not typically ended on the battlefield. 

I saw a member of the Duma speaking with Russian propagandists who was saying the war is not accomplishing anything and is a failure. Don't know if this guy is isolated or if he represents a shift in perspective, how it is spreading, etc.

All I know is Russia is looking like it is devolving into infighting, with insurgency, Wagner being attacked by Russians. Kadyrovites wanting to attack Wagners. Russian military shelling its own territory. It's a mess.

I just don't think this thing is ultimately going to be decided by who gains what territory as much as political support for the war collapsing into chaos in Russia that makes ending it the only option. Of course, I don't think Putin will be the one to end it, nor can he be trusted to be.

It is difficult to "know" anything about what is "really" going on inside Russia. IMO we get a lot of wishful thinking in the press. You can find people, sometimes important people, in any country that support almost any point of view. However, Russia is a totalitarian state. It has lost some of the "trappings" of the old Soviet Union, but it is still a totalitarian state. Russians have the ability to go completely Sgt. Schultz on virtually any issue. They don't "take sides" on anything until 1) they have no choice, or 2) they become convinced they have identified the "winning" side, and even then they will try to maintain contacts with the side they rejected, "just in case".

History has shown that predicting political change in Russia is virtually impossible. Many times, people predicted that the Tsar couldn't survive event X, and then he did survive event X. Nobody predicted the "fall of the Soviet Union". Everybody thought Yeltsin was a clown, which he was, but he ended up running Russia. You just don't know. For that reason, I think we need to assume that for Ukraine and Belarus to have any future as independent nations, Russia must be militarily defeated. IMO they won't quit until they are in a situation where they virtually can no longer fight, because nobody in Russia is going to risk being the one who says they can't win. It has to be so self evident nobody has to say it.