[Goose]

The media needs very simple stories. Like, "the offensive has begun," as if Ukraine's armed forces are all packed behind a start line of a marathon ready to run when horn goes off, or like F1 cars ready to start race from standing start after the red lights go out.

It's not going to be like that. Ukraine will slowly ramp up operations in different areas and not everything will be done at once. It does seem the insurgent efforts in Belogrod are being done to lure Russian forces into moving from hardened positions in Eastern occupied territories, so they can be attacked on the move. But there is so much to what will constitute the Ukraine counter offensive.  

I've learned over time that even calling it a "counteroffensive" probably is not the right word. But we need one word descriptions to refer to stuff. Unfortunately when the best word's definition doesn't ideally fit, we get misunderstandings about what is really happening.

Ukraine is pretty much just ramping up efforts to recapture territory in more places on a larger scale than they did when they took back Kyiv, Kherson and Northern Luhansk. They've got more and better weapons and will be throwing more forces at the effort. But it's not gonna all happen at once with some conspicuous Tet Offensive-like event.

Or indeed it might be a "conspicuous Tet Offensive-like event". We just don't know, and the Russians get a vote. You are indeed correct, it is a continuous process with possibly many branches and some (hopefully) surprising actions mixed in.
 
It is clear Ukraine has become increasingly nervous about the possible effects of Russian Frontal Aviation. Nobody really knows what Russia can do there, but Ukraine is acutely aware of their own deficiencies in air defense and the possibility of expensive battles resulting. They are also aware they are "on the hook" to "do something" even though they have deficiencies. IMO their real fear isn't that they will suffer many casualties (although they are obviously concerned about that) but rather that the outcome of their efforts will be such that it shows the war isn't going to end in 2023, and that it may go on much longer. Ukraine may take back some, but not most of their occupied territory. Nobody in the west or in Ukraine wants to hear that, but it could be what happens. If it does, the psychology of the war may change in ways Ukraine for sure doesn't want. There are those that are already saying neither Ukraine nor Russia can "win". If that becomes a majority, Ukraine is in real trouble.

[Goose]

The media needs very simple stories. Like, "the offensive has begun," as if Ukraine's armed forces are all packed behind a start line of a marathon ready to run when horn goes off, or like F1 cars ready to start race from standing start after the red lights go out.

It's not going to be like that. Ukraine will slowly ramp up operations in different areas and not everything will be done at once. It does seem the insurgent efforts in Belogrod are being done to lure Russian forces into moving from hardened positions in Eastern occupied territories, so they can be attacked on the move. But there is so much to what will constitute the Ukraine counter offensive.  

I've learned over time that even calling it a "counteroffensive" probably is not the right word. But we need one word descriptions to refer to stuff. Unfortunately when the best word's definition doesn't ideally fit, we get misunderstandings about what is really happening.

Ukraine is pretty much just ramping up efforts to recapture territory in more places on a larger scale than they did when they took back Kyiv, Kherson and Northern Luhansk. They've got more and better weapons and will be throwing more forces at the effort. But it's not gonna all happen at once with some conspicuous Tet Offensive-like event.

Or indeed it might be a "conspicuous Tet Offensive-like event". We just don't know, and the Russians get a vote. You are indeed correct, it is a continuous process with possibly many branches and some (hopefully) surprising actions mixed in.
 
It is clear Ukraine has become increasingly nervous about the possible effects of Russian Frontal Aviation. Nobody really knows what Russia can do there, but Ukraine is acutely aware of their own deficiencies in air defense and the possibility of expensive battles resulting. They are also aware they are "on the hook" to "do something" even though they have deficiencies. IMO their real fear isn't that they will suffer many casualties (although they are obviously concerned about that) but rather that the outcome of their efforts will be such that it shows the war isn't going to end in 2023, and that it may go on much longer. Ukraine may take back some, but not most of their occupied territory. Nobody in the west or in Ukraine wants to hear that, but it could be what happens. If it does, the psychology of the war may change in ways Ukraine for sure doesn't want. There are those that are already saying neither Ukraine nor Russia can "win". If that becomes a majority, Ukraine is in real trouble.