[Goose]

Goose, do you think it's possible Ukraine might want to push off the start of the counteroffensive until they are finished training on F-16's and M1A1 Abrams tanks, which might be in the Fall, or do you think it works better for them to start their counter offensive with everything else they have received, and potentially use that second wave of arms supplies as a way of keeping the initiative, assuming they are successful?

The F-16s aren't going to be even at IOC by Fall. One of the Ukrainian Air Force Cols wrote a good and very balance article about this subject. As he pointed out, you might be able to train a pilot to fly an F-16 safely in 6 months, but then you have to train him how to execute necessary military maneuvers and operate the weapons as "second nature". The Ukrainian pilots don't need to be good at everything but they need to be good at something. Right now, the plan appears to make them good in an air defense role. This is the Ukraine's primary need. Had we trained the pilots speculatively in advance, by now they would have 9-12 months training and be more than ready to fight. That didn't happen. History has shown that war is very, very unkind to pilots who are not adequately trained.

Ukraine is also under a lot of political pressure, both from their own public and from their "fans" in the West. They therefore can't wait 6 months, even forgetting about the weather. I think, FWIW, Ukraine is feeling the heat to "do something", and will in fact do so. The Abrams tanks are a "nice to have", but they have enough NATO standard tanks to "do something". The idea of letting Russia regroup again without significant combat pressure just isn't acceptable to "the public" and probably bad strategically. Russia has, it appears, expended it's forces in an offensive that didn't do much.

A lot of it depends on how good Russian training and morale is, and to what extent Ukraine can adapt to a "Hell on Wheels" type of advance. They have some positive experiences in doing this, so they can. It also depends upon what kind of "frontal aviation" Russia can generate. A lot of different things are possible, but Ukraine can't "stand pat" and wait until summer of 2024.

[Goose]

Goose, do you think it's possible Ukraine might want to push off the start of the counteroffensive until they are finished training on F-16's and M1A1 Abrams tanks, which might be in the Fall, or do you think it works better for them to start their counter offensive with everything else they have received, and potentially use that second wave of arms supplies as a way of keeping the initiative, assuming they are successful?

The F-16s aren't going to be even at IOC by Fall. One of the Ukrainian Air Force Cols wrote a good and very balance article about this subject. As he pointed out, you might be able to train a pilot to fly an F-16 safely in 6 months, but then you have to train him how to execute necessary military maneuvers and operate the weapons as "second nature". The Ukrainian pilots don't need to be good at everything but they need to be good at something. Right now, the plan appears to make them good in an air defense role. This is the Ukraine's primary need. Had we trained the pilots speculatively in advance, by now they would have 9-12 months training and be more than ready to fight. That didn't happen. History has shown that war is very, very unkind to pilots who are not adequately trained.

Ukraine is also under a lot of political pressure, both from their own public and from their "fans" in the West. They therefore can't wait 6 months, even forgetting about the weather. I think, FWIW, Ukraine is feeling the heat to "do something", and will in fact do so. The Abrams tanks are a "nice to have", but they have enough NATO standard tanks to "do something". The idea of letting Russia regroup again without significant combat pressure just isn't acceptable to "the public" and probably bad strategically. Russia has, it appears, expended it's forces in an offensive that didn't do much.

A lot of it depends on how good Russian training and morale is, and to what extent Ukraine can adapt to a "Hell on Wheels" type of advance. They have some positive experiences in doing this, so they can. It also depends upon what kind of "frontal aviation" Russia can generate. A lot of different things are possible, but Ukraine can't "stand pat" and wait until summer of 2024.