[Goose]

To add to this, it's Wagners goal as a PMC is to capture the city in full, regardless of the situation north and south, so Prigozhin can gain favor for accomplishing his task.

Yes, a contract is a contract. Now all that needs happen is applying the penalty for late delivery :-). I do think it possible, maybe even probable, that Ukraine does intend to crash down on the supply lines into Bakhmut. It won't be a deep envelopment, but rather a tactical one that will put the Wagner forces in Bakhmut itself on the horns of a dilemma. Stay and risk being cut off or retreat now while they can. Wagner has to rely on the regular Russian forces for flank protection and supply lines. There aren't enough Wagnerites to do it all. Obviously Wagner can't rely on these troops, as has already been proven. How much threat to their supply lines and line of retreat will they accept? If they capture the city but have to evacuate it due to threat of encirclement, it isn't their fault :-).

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I wonder how far back you can set the radar and command stations from the launchers? Perhaps they are willing to risk a couple launchers near the front lines if the rest of the system can provide the firing information from relative safety.

Normally the launchers are interfaced via a fiber-optic cable. The can also be interfaced via a VHF (SINCGARS) radio link, which can cover easily 10 km.

EDIT: It occurs to me that the US may have removed the radio link capability, or at least the crypto capability from the units provided to Ukraine. This capability isn't "necessary" to operate the battery and arguably of little use in a built-up area where buildings block the VHF signal.

However, I don't think one likes to use the radio link if it can be avoided, and it doesn't really affect the missile range that much. The missiles are pretty well matched to the radar. What the radar can see, the missiles can hit, more or less. This does assume your opponent doesn't do really stupid things however.

The problem with shooting at aircraft that are far away is that they can easily change course. This will require the missile to do likewise, and there is no guarantee that it will have enough kinetic energy to reach the target on the new course. If the opponent has an AEW aircraft up there, they will be warned of the missile launch and the threat level. Most importantly, if they know there are long-range threats, they fly low enough the acquisition radar can't see them for as long as possible. They will have to climb to launch a missile, but the missile can't reach the launch aircraft fast enough to stop the launch (if everybody does their job right). The launch aircraft will then dive for the deck and change course several times. Naturally, this is all going on inside Russian air space.

I don't believe (yet) that Ukraine has weapons free on targets inside Russian air space. They might, as the US and Ukraine have said that Ukraine selects the targets. Of course, that is true for HIMARS as well, yet we know Ukraine is not allowed to fire those into Russian territory.

[Goose]

To add to this, it's Wagners goal as a PMC is to capture the city in full, regardless of the situation north and south, so Prigozhin can gain favor for accomplishing his task.

Yes, a contract is a contract. Now all that needs happen is applying the penalty for late delivery :-). I do think it possible, maybe even probable, that Ukraine does intend to crash down on the supply lines into Bakhmut. It won't be a deep envelopment, but rather a tactical one that will put the Wagner forces in Bakhmut itself on the horns of a dilemma. Stay and risk being cut off or retreat now while they can. Wagner has to rely on the regular Russian forces for flank protection and supply lines. There aren't enough Wagnerites to do it all. Obviously Wagner can't rely on these troops, as has already been proven. How much threat to their supply lines and line of retreat will they accept? If they capture the city but have to evacuate it due to threat of encirclement, it isn't their fault :-).

---

I wonder how far back you can set the radar and command stations from the launchers? Perhaps they are willing to risk a couple launchers near the front lines if the rest of the system can provide the firing information from relative safety.

Normally the launchers are interfaced via a fiber-optic cable. The can also be interfaced via a VHF (SINCGARS) radio link, which can cover easily 10 km.

EDIT: It occurs to me that the US may have removed the radio link capability, or at least the crypto capability from the units provided to Ukraine. This capability isn't "necessary" to operate the battery and arguably of little use in a built-up area where buildings block the VHF signal.

However, I don't think one likes to use the radio link if it can be avoided, and it doesn't really affect the missile range that much. The missiles are pretty well matched to the radar. What the radar can see, the missiles can hit, more or less. This does assume your opponent doesn't do really stupid things however.

The problem with shooting at aircraft that are far away is that they can easily change course. This will require the missile to do likewise, and there is no guarantee that it will have enough kinetic energy to reach the target on the new course. If the opponent has an AEW aircraft up there, they will be warned of the missile launch and the threat level. Most importantly, if they know there are long-range threats, they fly low enough the acquisition radar can't see them for as long as possible. They will have to climb to launch a missile, but the missile can't reach the launch aircraft fast enough to stop the launch (if everybody does their job right). The launch aircraft will then dive for the deck and change course several times. Naturally, this is all going on inside Russian air space.

I don't believe (yet) that Ukraine has weapons free on targets inside Russian air space. They might, as the US and Ukraine have said that Ukraine selects the targets. Of course, that is true for HIMARS as well, yet we know Ukraine is not allowed to fire those into Russian territory.