[GK3]

Goose, yeah makes sense on Belarus, but I do wonder if Lukashenko's death could also lead to a minor conflict in Belarus, or at the very least an insurgency, given the people of Belarus won't be too excited to join Russia.

This situation is actually a major can of worms. I think many are rooting for Lukashenko to recover, because nobody wants to be forced to "play their hand" right now. The pro-democracy forces don't want to allow Putin to absorb their country, but it is unclear they have the military support to prevent it. There are many Lukashenko-want-to-be people in the current government of Belarus that may think they can cut a deal with Putin and get their wish. Putin OTOH started with a "deal" that would allow him to "unite" Belarus with Russia upon Lukashenko's death. Is he willing to postpone (perhaps forever) that event because he is too deeply involved in Ukraine and has no forces to "make it happen"? If Putin does invade Belarus and the pro-democracy forces ask for NATO help (like Ukraine got), what does NATO do? What does Ukraine do, as having Belarus to the north is better than having Russia to the north, and getting Russia involved in a war there arguably helps Ukraine? On top of all that there are many people in the Belarusian army that are "loyal" to many different political ideals, but who all agree that they don't want their country taken over by force. What will they do? From their point of view, if they are ever going to fight Russia, now is the time when Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and Belarus might get NATO (and Ukrainian for that matter) help. The Baltic States and Poland also really don't want Russia to actually occupy Belarus. On top of that, even if Russia does "take over", there may be an insurgency.

This scenario is going to play out eventually. Many hope it is not "soon". Who knows?

Another question for you.  What is up with South Africa?  Have they decided to to become part of the Russian orbit?  Seems like they risk a lot economically if Europe and USA apply sanctions, but maybe their "help" doesn't amount to much.  Secondly, is there any way to apply additional real economic pressure to Russia?  There are so many holes in the system, maybe the answer is No.

[GK3]

Goose, yeah makes sense on Belarus, but I do wonder if Lukashenko's death could also lead to a minor conflict in Belarus, or at the very least an insurgency, given the people of Belarus won't be too excited to join Russia.

This situation is actually a major can of worms. I think many are rooting for Lukashenko to recover, because nobody wants to be forced to "play their hand" right now. The pro-democracy forces don't want to allow Putin to absorb their country, but it is unclear they have the military support to prevent it. There are many Lukashenko-want-to-be people in the current government of Belarus that may think they can cut a deal with Putin and get their wish. Putin OTOH started with a "deal" that would allow him to "unite" Belarus with Russia upon Lukashenko's death. Is he willing to postpone (perhaps forever) that event because he is too deeply involved in Ukraine and has no forces to "make it happen"? If Putin does invade Belarus and the pro-democracy forces ask for NATO help (like Ukraine got), what does NATO do? What does Ukraine do, as having Belarus to the north is better than having Russia to the north, and getting Russia involved in a war there arguably helps Ukraine? On top of all that there are many people in the Belarusian army that are "loyal" to many different political ideals, but who all agree that they don't want their country taken over by force. What will they do? From their point of view, if they are ever going to fight Russia, now is the time when Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and Belarus might get NATO (and Ukrainian for that matter) help. The Baltic States and Poland also really don't want Russia to actually occupy Belarus. On top of that, even if Russia does "take over", there may be an insurgency.

This scenario is going to play out eventually. Many hope it is not "soon". Who knows?

Another question for you.  What is up with South Africa?  Have they decided to to become part of the Russian orbit?  Seems like they risk a lot economically if Europe and USA apply sanctions, but maybe their "help" doesn't amount to much.  Secondly, is there any way to apply additional real economic pressure to Russia?  There are so many holes in the system, maybe the answer is No.