[Goose]

I don’t thread on this topic often.  But  here is a not so simple question- how does this end?

Goose has weighed in on this a few times, but I'll give my best answer.  

The two extremes at this point are both not very likely for now, which are a total Ukrainian victory, taking back all Russian occupied lands, and restoring their legal borders.  On the other side, Ukraine isn't close to collapsing militarily, but a total Russian victory would be complete conquering of all of Ukraine, and likely installing a puppet regime, like Belarus is currently.  

Given neither side seems likely to compromise, as Ukraine will not give up their territory, and Putin will not give up on this war.  So it's likely this war goes on for a long time.  Theoretically with the 2024 elections coming up, and the current economic turmoil in the US could lead to drastic change in American support, which could also divide the west, and limit other countries supporting Ukraine, which could eventually lead to Ukraine having to negotiate again, potentially a Minsk III.  

Ukraine could also take significant land back in their upcoming counter offensive, and the wild card would be if they are able to start pushing into Crimea.  If they did that, or took back significant land in other areas, putting Russia in a position where they control less territory than they did on February 23rd 2022, then it's possible Putin is removed from power, and then many scenarios are possible, including things being much worse in Ukraine or being much better.  

Overall, I think most scenarios are still on the table, but I guess the most likely situation is that it doesn't end anytime soon, and if Ukraine can continue to fight, then this probably doesn't end until Putin is out of the picture, either by natural causes or other.

Depressing.  But thanks.

IMO a good analysis. Unfortunately, that is just "how it is". Only quibble is that Russia fully intends to absorb Belarus when the current "president" dies. That has been known for a while, and supposedly agreed to. After all this fighting, I can't imagine Russia would not do the same with Ukraine if they fully "win".

[Goose]

I don’t thread on this topic often.  But  here is a not so simple question- how does this end?

Goose has weighed in on this a few times, but I'll give my best answer.  

The two extremes at this point are both not very likely for now, which are a total Ukrainian victory, taking back all Russian occupied lands, and restoring their legal borders.  On the other side, Ukraine isn't close to collapsing militarily, but a total Russian victory would be complete conquering of all of Ukraine, and likely installing a puppet regime, like Belarus is currently.  

Given neither side seems likely to compromise, as Ukraine will not give up their territory, and Putin will not give up on this war.  So it's likely this war goes on for a long time.  Theoretically with the 2024 elections coming up, and the current economic turmoil in the US could lead to drastic change in American support, which could also divide the west, and limit other countries supporting Ukraine, which could eventually lead to Ukraine having to negotiate again, potentially a Minsk III.  

Ukraine could also take significant land back in their upcoming counter offensive, and the wild card would be if they are able to start pushing into Crimea.  If they did that, or took back significant land in other areas, putting Russia in a position where they control less territory than they did on February 23rd 2022, then it's possible Putin is removed from power, and then many scenarios are possible, including things being much worse in Ukraine or being much better.  

Overall, I think most scenarios are still on the table, but I guess the most likely situation is that it doesn't end anytime soon, and if Ukraine can continue to fight, then this probably doesn't end until Putin is out of the picture, either by natural causes or other.

Depressing.  But thanks.

IMO a good analysis. Unfortunately, that is just "how it is". Only quibble is that Russia fully intends to absorb Belarus when the current "president" dies. That has been known for a while, and supposedly agreed to. After all this fighting, I can't imagine Russia would not do the same with Ukraine if they fully "win".