[Goose]

I would think it would be unacceptably risky for an American aircraft or drone to release a drone that looks like a cruise missile over Luhansk, especially when other deep missile strikes are happening there. IMHO most likely this was fired from Ukrainian aircraft to help penetration for whatever they used to hit the factory in Luhansk. Likely another kludge for their Migs.

Certainly possible it was a launched from a Ukrainian aircraft as a decoy for the attack. OTOH, the ADM-160B was found in Luhansk Oblast, not the city itself, as I understand from the tweet. We don't know when it was deployed, it could have been many days ago. As far as the 160B visually resembling an ALCM, it is 1/2 the length of a Storm Shadow (1/3 that of a Tomahawk) and very much "skinnier", weighing 250 lbs vs 2300 lbs for a Storm Shadow. Wing span is proportionally smaller.

Of course, what it looks like visually probably doesn't matter nearly as much as what it looks like on radar. That is in theory determined by the on board electronics. FWIW it is known that US reconnaissance drones have in the past used these systems to create a false target that appears as a "normal" aircraft to long-range air search radars. This is done to mask the nature of the reconnaissance drone that has a much smaller radar cross section than the one created by the ADM-160B. The ADM-160B can fly slowly enough to stay with the recon drone. Of course it can also fly fast enough to look like a Storm Shadow :-).

IMO we don't know yet what is going on, and as some of the tweets point out, that is probably a "good thing". In any case, many Russian bloggers are already convinced it is a Storm Shadow attack, so even if it was something totally different, it has already created a lot of Fear and Doubt. For that reason, we may never "know".

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It seems the dirty Russians have a "Sophie's Choice" situation on their hands now with Bakhmut, doesn't it?

They put all this priority on the territory and made it into a politically significant objective. Ukraine bled them dry there and made the price to keep it significantly high. Now, Ukraine is ready to attack on other fronts that are more strategically valuable. It would make sense for Russia to give up Bakhmut to reinforce other areas, but how can they do this when Bakhmut was made to be the end all be all of the special operation for Russia?

I'm going to guess when Ukraine turns up the heat all the way on Bakhmut, Russian forces will surrender, not only taking them out of Bakhmut but preventing them from being able to be re-deployed elsewhere.

I think we are getting a bit ahead of the story here. Ukraine has had significant success against the flanking "horns" of the attempted Russian envelopment of Bakhmut, so much so that the Russians have evacuated part of Bakhmut. As far as "turning up the heat", Ukraine has a long way to go. Ukraine undoubtedly now wants to envelop the Russians currently in Bakhmut. Note that this is a relatively "shallow" envelopment, not something that would threaten the entire Russian position in the area. Note also that Wagner is in Bakhmut. Those guys aren't going to get themselves surrounded. They may leave the "cannon fodder" there but they will get out, no matter the political black eye it gives their boss. I am sure Ukraine would LOVE to surround those guys, but they have a history of getting out when things look "bad".

That doesn't mean that big things can't happen in the area from a wider envelopment by Ukraine, but so far it isn't being talked about in the blogs. Not to say it won't be.

[Goose]

I would think it would be unacceptably risky for an American aircraft or drone to release a drone that looks like a cruise missile over Luhansk, especially when other deep missile strikes are happening there. IMHO most likely this was fired from Ukrainian aircraft to help penetration for whatever they used to hit the factory in Luhansk. Likely another kludge for their Migs.

Certainly possible it was a launched from a Ukrainian aircraft as a decoy for the attack. OTOH, the ADM-160B was found in Luhansk Oblast, not the city itself, as I understand from the tweet. We don't know when it was deployed, it could have been many days ago. As far as the 160B visually resembling an ALCM, it is 1/2 the length of a Storm Shadow (1/3 that of a Tomahawk) and very much "skinnier", weighing 250 lbs vs 2300 lbs for a Storm Shadow. Wing span is proportionally smaller.

Of course, what it looks like visually probably doesn't matter nearly as much as what it looks like on radar. That is in theory determined by the on board electronics. FWIW it is known that US reconnaissance drones have in the past used these systems to create a false target that appears as a "normal" aircraft to long-range air search radars. This is done to mask the nature of the reconnaissance drone that has a much smaller radar cross section than the one created by the ADM-160B. The ADM-160B can fly slowly enough to stay with the recon drone. Of course it can also fly fast enough to look like a Storm Shadow :-).

IMO we don't know yet what is going on, and as some of the tweets point out, that is probably a "good thing". In any case, many Russian bloggers are already convinced it is a Storm Shadow attack, so even if it was something totally different, it has already created a lot of Fear and Doubt. For that reason, we may never "know".

---

It seems the dirty Russians have a "Sophie's Choice" situation on their hands now with Bakhmut, doesn't it?

They put all this priority on the territory and made it into a politically significant objective. Ukraine bled them dry there and made the price to keep it significantly high. Now, Ukraine is ready to attack on other fronts that are more strategically valuable. It would make sense for Russia to give up Bakhmut to reinforce other areas, but how can they do this when Bakhmut was made to be the end all be all of the special operation for Russia?

I'm going to guess when Ukraine turns up the heat all the way on Bakhmut, Russian forces will surrender, not only taking them out of Bakhmut but preventing them from being able to be re-deployed elsewhere.

I think we are getting a bit ahead of the story here. Ukraine has had significant success against the flanking "horns" of the attempted Russian envelopment of Bakhmut, so much so that the Russians have evacuated part of Bakhmut. As far as "turning up the heat", Ukraine has a long way to go. Ukraine undoubtedly now wants to envelop the Russians currently in Bakhmut. Note that this is a relatively "shallow" envelopment, not something that would threaten the entire Russian position in the area. Note also that Wagner is in Bakhmut. Those guys aren't going to get themselves surrounded. They may leave the "cannon fodder" there but they will get out, no matter the political black eye it gives their boss. I am sure Ukraine would LOVE to surround those guys, but they have a history of getting out when things look "bad".

That doesn't mean that big things can't happen in the area from a wider envelopment by Ukraine, but so far it isn't being talked about in the blogs. Not to say it won't be.