[Goose]

Russian military bloggers are talking about successful Ukrainian breakthroughs in multiple areas of the front, near the flanks of Bakhmut and in the north near Soledar and Kupyansk, with concern that a larger attack is about to come in the south. The Russian MOD issued a statement denying all this, but the feel is similar to Kharkiv and Kherson counterattacks.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/16567...47457?s=20
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status...90146?s=20

I think this situation is indeed somewhat like Kharkiv/Kupiansk. The Russians just don't have the forces in place to do what they are trying to do. Ukraine has intelligently found a weak link and exploited it. It remains to be seen if the Russians have indeed again left a hollow shell behind them that Ukraine can really exploit, but if they did, Russia is in a lot of trouble. I would bet with high confidence this is NOT Ukraine's intended Schwerpunkt. It is a "bonus", which is always good.

It strikes me that at this point in the war, Russia's more elite units that have the capability and morale to go on counter attacks against advancing Ukrainian forces will have been heavily degraded. Hard to say whether these are just successful probing attacks or the actual beginning of Ukraine's full offensive. However if Ukraine does succeed in getting multiple breakthroughs on separate fronts Russia will struggle to plug the gaps.

IMO you are exactly correct. The last thing Russia needs is a requirement to rapidly shuttle forces around to contain breakthroughs. The have shown a marked inability to do anything fast. This will be doubly true if Ukraine can create this problem without using the main striking forces it has accumulated for the "spring offensive". Russia could be massively "wrong footed" here.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/uk-gi...09496.html

Not too much new here but a good summary. IMO the most important point is that this has been the wettest spring in may years and the mud is still bad. Even if Ukraine has already got everything in place, they may need to wait "a bit" before they start the main effort. They really don't want to start making progress (but lose the element of surprise) and then get stuck in the mud. It would be different if they were trying to preempt a Russian offensive, but there is no such thing in the cards. They can pick their time.

I am betting something in Zaporizhia Oblast followed by (if things are going "ok" in the first effort) something 10-14 days later in Kherson Oblast directed at isolating a large segment of the Russian defense and threatening Crimea. If things go badly/slowly in Zaporizhia the Kherson action will become a diversionary effort. Russia is paranoid there (and needs to be), so such a diversion can be effective. If Russia is already committing reserves in Donbas because of setbacks there, even better!

Just armchair generaling here, but it seems like given the relative lack of strategic significance of a Bakhmut advance, the main goal would be to force Russia to commit their reserves to that axis prior to a more aggressive offensive further south. The political importance of Bakhmut at this point could be a tool to force Russia to commit more forces there then is wise.

If they can gain a lot of ground on the flanks and encircle forces within the city, all the better.  I wouldn’t expect a big push within the city itself due to the attrition involved.

I agree with your armchair generaling :-). The Ukrainians also can't profitably use their "new" armor there because there are too many wooded areas and few (if any) good roads they can use to rapidly advance. It is good country for infantry to defend, as Ukraine has shown all along. If Russia collapses as they did around Kupiansk you might see a bigger push over a wider/deeper area, but it will be a push that avoids direct battles and attempts to encircle, as you say.

[Goose]

Russian military bloggers are talking about successful Ukrainian breakthroughs in multiple areas of the front, near the flanks of Bakhmut and in the north near Soledar and Kupyansk, with concern that a larger attack is about to come in the south. The Russian MOD issued a statement denying all this, but the feel is similar to Kharkiv and Kherson counterattacks.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/16567...47457?s=20
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status...90146?s=20

I think this situation is indeed somewhat like Kharkiv/Kupiansk. The Russians just don't have the forces in place to do what they are trying to do. Ukraine has intelligently found a weak link and exploited it. It remains to be seen if the Russians have indeed again left a hollow shell behind them that Ukraine can really exploit, but if they did, Russia is in a lot of trouble. I would bet with high confidence this is NOT Ukraine's intended Schwerpunkt. It is a "bonus", which is always good.

It strikes me that at this point in the war, Russia's more elite units that have the capability and morale to go on counter attacks against advancing Ukrainian forces will have been heavily degraded. Hard to say whether these are just successful probing attacks or the actual beginning of Ukraine's full offensive. However if Ukraine does succeed in getting multiple breakthroughs on separate fronts Russia will struggle to plug the gaps.

IMO you are exactly correct. The last thing Russia needs is a requirement to rapidly shuttle forces around to contain breakthroughs. The have shown a marked inability to do anything fast. This will be doubly true if Ukraine can create this problem without using the main striking forces it has accumulated for the "spring offensive". Russia could be massively "wrong footed" here.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/uk-gi...09496.html

Not too much new here but a good summary. IMO the most important point is that this has been the wettest spring in may years and the mud is still bad. Even if Ukraine has already got everything in place, they may need to wait "a bit" before they start the main effort. They really don't want to start making progress (but lose the element of surprise) and then get stuck in the mud. It would be different if they were trying to preempt a Russian offensive, but there is no such thing in the cards. They can pick their time.

I am betting something in Zaporizhia Oblast followed by (if things are going "ok" in the first effort) something 10-14 days later in Kherson Oblast directed at isolating a large segment of the Russian defense and threatening Crimea. If things go badly/slowly in Zaporizhia the Kherson action will become a diversionary effort. Russia is paranoid there (and needs to be), so such a diversion can be effective. If Russia is already committing reserves in Donbas because of setbacks there, even better!

Just armchair generaling here, but it seems like given the relative lack of strategic significance of a Bakhmut advance, the main goal would be to force Russia to commit their reserves to that axis prior to a more aggressive offensive further south. The political importance of Bakhmut at this point could be a tool to force Russia to commit more forces there then is wise.

If they can gain a lot of ground on the flanks and encircle forces within the city, all the better.  I wouldn’t expect a big push within the city itself due to the attrition involved.

I agree with your armchair generaling :-). The Ukrainians also can't profitably use their "new" armor there because there are too many wooded areas and few (if any) good roads they can use to rapidly advance. It is good country for infantry to defend, as Ukraine has shown all along. If Russia collapses as they did around Kupiansk you might see a bigger push over a wider/deeper area, but it will be a push that avoids direct battles and attempts to encircle, as you say.