[Goose]

FWIW all of these articles reference leaked documents

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-russi...er-ukraine

Another interesting analysis of how Ukraine proceeds with depleted air defenses. In this piece discussion is about how Ukraine will likely prioritize their air defense missiles to protect military assets, while letting previously intercepted cruise missiles and drones get through to cities and civilian infrastructure. The podcast I linked yesterday discussed this a bit too. Western air defenses systems may be able to pick up some of this slack but probably only for large cities and very important infrastructure. The assessment is that in the near term Ukraine should be able to cover its military assets and protect a counteroffensive, but civilians and infrastructure will probably be less protected than previously.

IMO the assessment that Ukraine can protect it's notional offensive from Russian air contains a logical flaw. The article asserts that Russian air will not be able to freely operate inside Ukrainian airspace. There will be enough air defense to prevent that, possibly at the expense of not defending some civilian assets. However, the article does admit that Russian air can operate pretty much with impunity inside Russian air space. As the Ukrainian air force repeatedly and stridently points out, those Russian aircraft in Russian airspace can do two things. First, they can target Ukrainian aircraft operating in Ukrainian air space or over the FEBA because they have superior radars and vastly longer range missiles than the Ukrainian air force does. Second, the Russians can launch KH-55 style air-to-surface missiles as well as KAB-500S-E style guided bombs. These weapons can easily reach the FEBA and beyond even when launched from Russian airspace. Ukraine cannot defend against these threats, by their own statements.

One could take some solace in the idea that Russia has not yet mounted an effective air campaign of this type in the war, although they have recently been more active. However, there is no question they have the weapons to do so. It is also relatively "safe", as Ukraine basically can't reach them. Keep in mind that Ukraine will be executing a combined arms attack most probably in the south, which is open country. They won't be dug in or occupying fortified positions in a city. They will be relatively easy to "find". Those riding in tanks and IFVs will be relatively safe from anything but a direct hit/very near miss (unless Russia has a guided cluster bomb available), but their fuel trucks and support units will not be. Anything "thin skinned" will be at risk at all times, and even armored vehicles will suffer attrition. The KH-59 is TV guided, so direct hits are possible to generate. If the combined arms operation has significantly penetrated Russian lines, it will be completely inside the Russian ADZ, which means these standoff weapons can be used with impunity.

In short, Russia has standoff weapons. If they use them anywhere near competently they can do a lot of damage. Ukraine really doesn't have an answer for them. We can hope the Russians will perform poorly, but it isn't good to "trust to luck".

[Goose]

FWIW all of these articles reference leaked documents

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-russi...er-ukraine

Another interesting analysis of how Ukraine proceeds with depleted air defenses. In this piece discussion is about how Ukraine will likely prioritize their air defense missiles to protect military assets, while letting previously intercepted cruise missiles and drones get through to cities and civilian infrastructure. The podcast I linked yesterday discussed this a bit too. Western air defenses systems may be able to pick up some of this slack but probably only for large cities and very important infrastructure. The assessment is that in the near term Ukraine should be able to cover its military assets and protect a counteroffensive, but civilians and infrastructure will probably be less protected than previously.

IMO the assessment that Ukraine can protect it's notional offensive from Russian air contains a logical flaw. The article asserts that Russian air will not be able to freely operate inside Ukrainian airspace. There will be enough air defense to prevent that, possibly at the expense of not defending some civilian assets. However, the article does admit that Russian air can operate pretty much with impunity inside Russian air space. As the Ukrainian air force repeatedly and stridently points out, those Russian aircraft in Russian airspace can do two things. First, they can target Ukrainian aircraft operating in Ukrainian air space or over the FEBA because they have superior radars and vastly longer range missiles than the Ukrainian air force does. Second, the Russians can launch KH-55 style air-to-surface missiles as well as KAB-500S-E style guided bombs. These weapons can easily reach the FEBA and beyond even when launched from Russian airspace. Ukraine cannot defend against these threats, by their own statements.

One could take some solace in the idea that Russia has not yet mounted an effective air campaign of this type in the war, although they have recently been more active. However, there is no question they have the weapons to do so. It is also relatively "safe", as Ukraine basically can't reach them. Keep in mind that Ukraine will be executing a combined arms attack most probably in the south, which is open country. They won't be dug in or occupying fortified positions in a city. They will be relatively easy to "find". Those riding in tanks and IFVs will be relatively safe from anything but a direct hit/very near miss (unless Russia has a guided cluster bomb available), but their fuel trucks and support units will not be. Anything "thin skinned" will be at risk at all times, and even armored vehicles will suffer attrition. The KH-59 is TV guided, so direct hits are possible to generate. If the combined arms operation has significantly penetrated Russian lines, it will be completely inside the Russian ADZ, which means these standoff weapons can be used with impunity.

In short, Russia has standoff weapons. If they use them anywhere near competently they can do a lot of damage. Ukraine really doesn't have an answer for them. We can hope the Russians will perform poorly, but it isn't good to "trust to luck".