[dabigv13]

FWIW all of these articles reference leaked documents

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-russi...er-ukraine

Another interesting analysis of how Ukraine proceeds with depleted air defenses. In this piece discussion is about how Ukraine will likely prioritize their air defense missiles to protect military assets, while letting previously intercepted cruise missiles and drones get through to cities and civilian infrastructure. The podcast I linked yesterday discussed this a bit too. Western air defenses systems may be able to pick up some of this slack but probably only for large cities and very important infrastructure. The assessment is that in the near term Ukraine should be able to cover its military assets and protect a counteroffensive, but civilians and infrastructure will probably be less protected than previously.

NYT on the coming offensive
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/us/po...nsive.html

At the same time, 12 Ukrainian combat brigades of about 4,000 soldiers each are expected to be ready at the end of April, according to leaked Pentagon documents that offer a hint of Kyiv’s timetable. The United States and NATO allies are training and supplying nine of those brigades, the documents said.

....

Ukraine built the new combat brigades by pairing raw recruits with a small core of experienced veteran soldiers. Beginning in January, the units went to American training grounds in Germany to learn how to use their new equipment and how to conduct what the American army calls combined arms maneuvers — using effective communication to coordinate advancing troops with supporting units such as tanks and artillery.

This is from last week. Abrams deliveries being bumped up.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/world...-jets.html

Ukrainian troops will begin training on American M1 Abrams tanks in Germany in the next few weeks, U.S. defense officials say, in what would be a major step in arming Kyiv as it seeks to seize back territory from Russia.

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III announced the timeline on Friday during a meeting with allies at Ramstein Air Base. Defense officials said that about 31 tanks were expected to arrive in Germany to begin a training program for Ukrainian troops that is expected to take 10 weeks. Combat-ready tanks could reach the battlefields in Ukraine by the fall, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss security matters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/world...icles.html

Nearly all the combat vehicles Ukraine’s Western allies promised to deliver in time for Kyiv’s expected spring counteroffensive have arrived, NATO’s top military commander said on Wednesday.

“Over 98 percent of the combat vehicles are already there,” said the officer, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, who is also the top commander of U.S. forces in Europe. In testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, he said, “I am very confident that we have delivered the matériel that they need and we’ll continue a pipeline to sustain their operations as well.”
....
Asked why the Biden administration had not rushed the delivery of advanced U.S. fighter jets, like Air Force F-16s, to Ukraine, General Cavoli said that Ukrainian forces had other more urgent requirements for the offensive, which U.S. officials now expect to start as early as next month.

Celeste A. Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told the lawmakers that advanced Western fighter aircraft ranked only “about eighth” on Ukraine’s priority list.

Finally, sometimes Russian planes decide to blow up without any assistance from Ukrainian air defenses 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1651290795033362442?s=20[/tweet]

[dabigv13]

FWIW all of these articles reference leaked documents

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-russi...er-ukraine

Another interesting analysis of how Ukraine proceeds with depleted air defenses. In this piece discussion is about how Ukraine will likely prioritize their air defense missiles to protect military assets, while letting previously intercepted cruise missiles and drones get through to cities and civilian infrastructure. The podcast I linked yesterday discussed this a bit too. Western air defenses systems may be able to pick up some of this slack but probably only for large cities and very important infrastructure. The assessment is that in the near term Ukraine should be able to cover its military assets and protect a counteroffensive, but civilians and infrastructure will probably be less protected than previously.

NYT on the coming offensive
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/us/po...nsive.html

At the same time, 12 Ukrainian combat brigades of about 4,000 soldiers each are expected to be ready at the end of April, according to leaked Pentagon documents that offer a hint of Kyiv’s timetable. The United States and NATO allies are training and supplying nine of those brigades, the documents said.

....

Ukraine built the new combat brigades by pairing raw recruits with a small core of experienced veteran soldiers. Beginning in January, the units went to American training grounds in Germany to learn how to use their new equipment and how to conduct what the American army calls combined arms maneuvers — using effective communication to coordinate advancing troops with supporting units such as tanks and artillery.

This is from last week. Abrams deliveries being bumped up.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/world...-jets.html

Ukrainian troops will begin training on American M1 Abrams tanks in Germany in the next few weeks, U.S. defense officials say, in what would be a major step in arming Kyiv as it seeks to seize back territory from Russia.

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III announced the timeline on Friday during a meeting with allies at Ramstein Air Base. Defense officials said that about 31 tanks were expected to arrive in Germany to begin a training program for Ukrainian troops that is expected to take 10 weeks. Combat-ready tanks could reach the battlefields in Ukraine by the fall, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss security matters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/world...icles.html

Nearly all the combat vehicles Ukraine’s Western allies promised to deliver in time for Kyiv’s expected spring counteroffensive have arrived, NATO’s top military commander said on Wednesday.

“Over 98 percent of the combat vehicles are already there,” said the officer, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, who is also the top commander of U.S. forces in Europe. In testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, he said, “I am very confident that we have delivered the matériel that they need and we’ll continue a pipeline to sustain their operations as well.”
....
Asked why the Biden administration had not rushed the delivery of advanced U.S. fighter jets, like Air Force F-16s, to Ukraine, General Cavoli said that Ukrainian forces had other more urgent requirements for the offensive, which U.S. officials now expect to start as early as next month.

Celeste A. Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told the lawmakers that advanced Western fighter aircraft ranked only “about eighth” on Ukraine’s priority list.

Finally, sometimes Russian planes decide to blow up without any assistance from Ukrainian air defenses 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1651290795033362442?s=20[/tweet]