[dabigv13]

My understanding is that F16s would be an upgrade over the Migs and Flankers, but as long as Russia has extensive long range air defense coverage it probably doesn't matter what or how many jets Ukraine is flying. And unfortunately there is no realistic way of getting Ukraine the capability to eliminate those long range air defenses.


Any jet, F16s included, would still be limited to very low level flying near the front, which would put them at a severe disadvantage to Russian jets, which could likely keep out of range of Ukrainian jets even with AMRAAMs, while being in range for their R77 missiles.

In scenario where Ukraine is very low on air defense missiles, maybe having more and better fighters would be nice but they would still only be able to operate at altitude pretty far from the front lines, and would not be able to deny air superiority comparable to ground based air defenses, or they would be quickly destroyed.

If there is an original sin to NATO planning for this war, to me it's that it took too long to start replenishing Ukrainian air defense systems- either by finding a way to manufacture S300 missiles or by getting industry to ramp up production of Patriots. I think it would be nice for Ukraine to have F16s, and I agree that we should be training their pilots already for this transition, but the ultimate outcome of the war I don't think will be affected by their presence or absence.

My guess is that Ukraine still has enough ground based air defense to cover an offensive across most of the front. Later in the summer or fall, they may only be able to cover specific points, which could limit their strategic flexibility. However even if Ukrainian air defenses become spottier in their coverage, seems unlikely VKS and Russian ground forces would be really able to take advantage and regain initiative.

And I'm pretty confident the number of soldiers killed by drone dropped weapons will be much much more than those killed by munitions from conventional aircraft, no matter what happens to Ukrainian air defenses.

.....

Here's an interesting article from the Economist on F16s and Gripens.


https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/04...in-the-war

[dabigv13]

My understanding is that F16s would be an upgrade over the Migs and Flankers, but as long as Russia has extensive long range air defense coverage it probably doesn't matter what or how many jets Ukraine is flying. And unfortunately there is no realistic way of getting Ukraine the capability to eliminate those long range air defenses.


Any jet, F16s included, would still be limited to very low level flying near the front, which would put them at a severe disadvantage to Russian jets, which could likely keep out of range of Ukrainian jets even with AMRAAMs, while being in range for their R77 missiles.

In scenario where Ukraine is very low on air defense missiles, maybe having more and better fighters would be nice but they would still only be able to operate at altitude pretty far from the front lines, and would not be able to deny air superiority comparable to ground based air defenses, or they would be quickly destroyed.

If there is an original sin to NATO planning for this war, to me it's that it took too long to start replenishing Ukrainian air defense systems- either by finding a way to manufacture S300 missiles or by getting industry to ramp up production of Patriots. I think it would be nice for Ukraine to have F16s, and I agree that we should be training their pilots already for this transition, but the ultimate outcome of the war I don't think will be affected by their presence or absence.

My guess is that Ukraine still has enough ground based air defense to cover an offensive across most of the front. Later in the summer or fall, they may only be able to cover specific points, which could limit their strategic flexibility. However even if Ukrainian air defenses become spottier in their coverage, seems unlikely VKS and Russian ground forces would be really able to take advantage and regain initiative.

And I'm pretty confident the number of soldiers killed by drone dropped weapons will be much much more than those killed by munitions from conventional aircraft, no matter what happens to Ukrainian air defenses.

.....

Here's an interesting article from the Economist on F16s and Gripens.


https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/04...in-the-war