[DC 86]

The Richmond box score every day and the Sacramento box score when Harrison is on the mound will either give us hope or cause more unrest in the fan base.

One thing to keep in mind is that minor league box score stats don't necessarily translate to major league performance. Kyle Harrison is a good example. His stuff is so spectacular that he can overwhelm minor league hitters, but his lack of command will hold him back until he fixes that problem. So his superficial numbers may be strong, and even his K/BB may look great, but it's misleading because AA hitters are chasing pitches that major leaguers will let pass, and therefore he will find himself in difficult counts against more experienced hitters.

A great example of what I mean is Dylan Cease. He was a major draft prospect and considered a phenomenal prospect as he rose up through the minors, putting up very strong superficial numbers along the way. But his command was poor so he struggled badly his first two shots at the majors. It was only in his third major league season (at age 25) that he became a solid starter, and the following season (at age 26) he became a dominant, Cy Young-type player. It wouldn't surprise me if Harrison followed a similar trajectory, albeit maybe younger. If he's called up prematurely he is likely to struggle a lot because of his command issues, which haven't really improved thus far.

The same is true for hitters of course. The non-box score stats (chase rate, barrel rate, exit velocity etc) are far more predictive of being able to adapt to major league pitching than traditional stats. Opponent pitching quality varies a lot. A batter with an advanced eye can pump up his OBP against wild pitchers and a toolsy but undisciplined hitter can pump up his stats against mistakes, but those skills won't translate against major league pitchers. Pitch recognition and plate coverage translate really well but it's hard to measure those qualities strictly from a box score.

[DC 86]

The Richmond box score every day and the Sacramento box score when Harrison is on the mound will either give us hope or cause more unrest in the fan base.

One thing to keep in mind is that minor league box score stats don't necessarily translate to major league performance. Kyle Harrison is a good example. His stuff is so spectacular that he can overwhelm minor league hitters, but his lack of command will hold him back until he fixes that problem. So his superficial numbers may be strong, and even his K/BB may look great, but it's misleading because AA hitters are chasing pitches that major leaguers will let pass, and therefore he will find himself in difficult counts against more experienced hitters.

A great example of what I mean is Dylan Cease. He was a major draft prospect and considered a phenomenal prospect as he rose up through the minors, putting up very strong superficial numbers along the way. But his command was poor so he struggled badly his first two shots at the majors. It was only in his third major league season (at age 25) that he became a solid starter, and the following season (at age 26) he became a dominant, Cy Young-type player. It wouldn't surprise me if Harrison followed a similar trajectory, albeit maybe younger. If he's called up prematurely he is likely to struggle a lot because of his command issues, which haven't really improved thus far.

The same is true for hitters of course. The non-box score stats (chase rate, barrel rate, exit velocity etc) are far more predictive of being able to adapt to major league pitching than traditional stats. Opponent pitching quality varies a lot. A batter with an advanced eye can pump up his OBP against wild pitchers and a toolsy but undisciplined hitter can pump up his stats against mistakes, but those skills won't translate against major league pitchers. Pitch recognition and plate coverage translate really well but it's hard to measure those qualities strictly from a box score.