Ukraine will indeed start one or more offensives in the spring, depending on the weather (among other things). Ukraine will be doing so without air superiority. They have known this all along. The US analysis of any such Ukrainian offensive is colored by our expectation that the Russian air force will be extremely effective against troops and vehicles in the open. That would certainly be the case if it were a US air force, but it is unclear what Russia can and will do. Undoubtedly, we will all soon find out.
At low altitudes, Ukraine continues to have a potent defensive capability. At altitudes of 10k feet or more, the capability decreases rapidly. One complicating factor is that neither Russia nor Ukraine can use their IFF to prevent fratricide. This may allow the Ukrainian air force to operate in the 10k and above region successfully and counter Russian air because the Russians can't use their long range air to air missiles for fear of hitting their own aircraft. It is also true that Russia lacks large numbers of stand-off weapons (like Mavericks, Hellfire/Brimstone) that can hit moving vehicles from above 10k feet. It will be risky business. Ukraine will be betting they can contain/stalemate Russian air and break through Russian static defenses. It will be a costly effort even when it succeeds. However, if the situation becomes fluid the bad, slow Russian command and control may negate their possible air superiority.
Lets hope Ukraine has success, because if they do not, Russia will have time to build up for another offensive of their own before winter. It will also mean Ukraine must develop a new air force to have any chance in this war. The US would never consider mounting an offensive without at least a stalemate in the air. We haven't actually ever done it in recent years (since Guadalcanal probably) without air superiority. If Ukraine demonstrates there is no alternative to at least a stalemate in the air and the US declines to supply the weapons to accomplish that, it is game over. Both Russia and Ukraine will know that eventually Russia will win. They just have to keep at it.
At low altitudes, Ukraine continues to have a potent defensive capability. At altitudes of 10k feet or more, the capability decreases rapidly. One complicating factor is that neither Russia nor Ukraine can use their IFF to prevent fratricide. This may allow the Ukrainian air force to operate in the 10k and above region successfully and counter Russian air because the Russians can't use their long range air to air missiles for fear of hitting their own aircraft. It is also true that Russia lacks large numbers of stand-off weapons (like Mavericks, Hellfire/Brimstone) that can hit moving vehicles from above 10k feet. It will be risky business. Ukraine will be betting they can contain/stalemate Russian air and break through Russian static defenses. It will be a costly effort even when it succeeds. However, if the situation becomes fluid the bad, slow Russian command and control may negate their possible air superiority.
Lets hope Ukraine has success, because if they do not, Russia will have time to build up for another offensive of their own before winter. It will also mean Ukraine must develop a new air force to have any chance in this war. The US would never consider mounting an offensive without at least a stalemate in the air. We haven't actually ever done it in recent years (since Guadalcanal probably) without air superiority. If Ukraine demonstrates there is no alternative to at least a stalemate in the air and the US declines to supply the weapons to accomplish that, it is game over. Both Russia and Ukraine will know that eventually Russia will win. They just have to keep at it.