[Mick]

I remember seeing Bailey's college stats and thinking in my John McEnroe inner voice "You cannot be serious. This guy can't hit, shouldn't be a first round pick, and we already have Joey Bart." I realize they took Bailey because he was more like a 3rd/4th pick, who agreed to sign for much less money.

That's a great story, except that the slot value for the pick was $4.197 million and Bailey signed for $3.8 million, less than a 10% discount. Third and fourth round slot values ranged from 431k to 857k that year.

The Giants had an overall pool of $9.2 million for their five draft picks. They saved on Patrick Bailey (and others) in order to spend just under $2.5 million -- not $710k, their third round slot value -- on their 3th round pick that year. Fella by the name of Kyle Harrison. Their last two picks, Dabovich and Murphy signed for just $197,500 and $22,500 respectively. All of the savings on each draft pick helped the Giants to sign Kyle Harrison.

Frankly, I thought all but Kyle Harrison were a stretch.

Nobody disputes that the Giants shrewdly manipulated their bonus pool money to sign Harrison to an over slot deal. However,

1. You said that they signed Bailey "for much less money" - False. $3.8 million is not much less than $4.197 million, it's less than 10% savings, and given that college players have less leverage than high school players it's pretty standard.

1) It's $400,000 less. You're pretending it's insignificant. Would you walk away from $400k?  I wouldn't. 
2) $4.197 million is 11.042105% more than $3.8 million.
3) You said it's pretty standard. Three guys of the 12 drafted in front of him  and eight of the 30 selected in the first round signed for that much or more less than their pick value. I don't consider that to be standard.
4) I said they "saved on Patrick Bailey and others." Bailey was nearly $400k below, Schmitt was around $350k below, Glowenke was around $456k below, Dabovich was $312k (approx) below, Murphy was $350k below. They all (except Swiney) signed for less so they could get Harrison. 

2. You said he was "more like a 3rd-4th pick" - again False. If that was the case the Giants could have offered Bailey $1 million (well above the highest third round slot value) and had over $3 million left over to not only sign Harrison over slot but to also sign their 2nd, 4th and 5th round picks to over slot deals as well, instead of having to go under slot as they did. That didn't happen because Bailey was considered a mid-first round pick by the industry. The Giants didn't offer $3.8 million as a charity.

I meant that in my view he was worth a 3rd/4th round pick. He's sure tearing it up, isn't he?

3. You said that based on his college stats that Bailey "can't hit" - False yet again. He recorded a .979 career OPS (1.151 in his final season) as a well above average defensive catcher in a power conference. For comparison's sake, Joey Bart recorded a .950 career OPS (1.102 in his final season) playing in the same conference, and he was drafted #2 overall and received a signing bonus over $7 million, despite having a defensive reputation when drafted that was inferior to Bailey, albeit still regarded as an above average defender.

I made the comment that Bailey couldn't hit for the following reasons:

a) I discount college OPS almost completely. Anyone can hit for power with aluminum bats against college pitching in the ACC, the 3rd/4th best NCAA league.
b) More to the point, Bailey can't make contact. He hit .288 as a junior and .296 as a senior in a hitter's league. The average batting average in the ACC his senior year was .286. Bailey was very, very slightly above average in making contact in the ACC. And he struck out 18 times in 73 plate appearances (24.7%, against college pitching). And as far as the NCAA goes, that doesn't crack the Top 700 hitters.
c) He hit much better as a frosh. In other words, he regressed in hitting ability.
d) When he traveled with Team USA (again, wood bats), his stock definitely cooled. He had 12 strikeouts in 26 at bats.

And, not surprisingly, he proved he couldn't hit much when he hit .185 in high A.

[Mick]

I remember seeing Bailey's college stats and thinking in my John McEnroe inner voice "You cannot be serious. This guy can't hit, shouldn't be a first round pick, and we already have Joey Bart." I realize they took Bailey because he was more like a 3rd/4th pick, who agreed to sign for much less money.

That's a great story, except that the slot value for the pick was $4.197 million and Bailey signed for $3.8 million, less than a 10% discount. Third and fourth round slot values ranged from 431k to 857k that year.

The Giants had an overall pool of $9.2 million for their five draft picks. They saved on Patrick Bailey (and others) in order to spend just under $2.5 million -- not $710k, their third round slot value -- on their 3th round pick that year. Fella by the name of Kyle Harrison. Their last two picks, Dabovich and Murphy signed for just $197,500 and $22,500 respectively. All of the savings on each draft pick helped the Giants to sign Kyle Harrison.

Frankly, I thought all but Kyle Harrison were a stretch.

Nobody disputes that the Giants shrewdly manipulated their bonus pool money to sign Harrison to an over slot deal. However,

1. You said that they signed Bailey "for much less money" - False. $3.8 million is not much less than $4.197 million, it's less than 10% savings, and given that college players have less leverage than high school players it's pretty standard.

1) It's $400,000 less. You're pretending it's insignificant. Would you walk away from $400k?  I wouldn't. 
2) $4.197 million is 11.042105% more than $3.8 million.
3) You said it's pretty standard. Three guys of the 12 drafted in front of him  and eight of the 30 selected in the first round signed for that much or more less than their pick value. I don't consider that to be standard.
4) I said they "saved on Patrick Bailey and others." Bailey was nearly $400k below, Schmitt was around $350k below, Glowenke was around $456k below, Dabovich was $312k (approx) below, Murphy was $350k below. They all (except Swiney) signed for less so they could get Harrison. 

2. You said he was "more like a 3rd-4th pick" - again False. If that was the case the Giants could have offered Bailey $1 million (well above the highest third round slot value) and had over $3 million left over to not only sign Harrison over slot but to also sign their 2nd, 4th and 5th round picks to over slot deals as well, instead of having to go under slot as they did. That didn't happen because Bailey was considered a mid-first round pick by the industry. The Giants didn't offer $3.8 million as a charity.

I meant that in my view he was worth a 3rd/4th round pick. He's sure tearing it up, isn't he?

3. You said that based on his college stats that Bailey "can't hit" - False yet again. He recorded a .979 career OPS (1.151 in his final season) as a well above average defensive catcher in a power conference. For comparison's sake, Joey Bart recorded a .950 career OPS (1.102 in his final season) playing in the same conference, and he was drafted #2 overall and received a signing bonus over $7 million, despite having a defensive reputation when drafted that was inferior to Bailey, albeit still regarded as an above average defender.

I made the comment that Bailey couldn't hit for the following reasons:

a) I discount college OPS almost completely. Anyone can hit for power with aluminum bats against college pitching in the ACC, the 3rd/4th best NCAA league.
b) More to the point, Bailey can't make contact. He hit .288 as a junior and .296 as a senior in a hitter's league. The average batting average in the ACC his senior year was .286. Bailey was very, very slightly above average in making contact in the ACC. And he struck out 18 times in 73 plate appearances (24.7%, against college pitching). And as far as the NCAA goes, that doesn't crack the Top 700 hitters.
c) He hit much better as a frosh. In other words, he regressed in hitting ability.
d) When he traveled with Team USA (again, wood bats), his stock definitely cooled. He had 12 strikeouts in 26 at bats.

And, not surprisingly, he proved he couldn't hit much when he hit .185 in high A.