[Goose]

All this makes sense, but it seems like the reporting is not even consistent on whether Ukraine will be able to keep Bakhmut.  NYT is saying that Russia's forces are exhausted and won't be able to take Bakhmut.  ISW is saying that Russia has taken 5% of the city in the last week, is consolidating those gains, and is positioned to take more in the near future.

Nobody really knows, because it depends on decisions that have not yet been made. Wagner is exhausted and cannot source "human wave" attacks into Bakhmut anymore. That part is pretty definite. Russia has committed "regular" infantry that is using the same tactics used in Donbas previously. Use massive artillery barrages to destroy completely a part of the city, and then advance troops into the resulting wasteland. Russia has shown this can work when they have an adequate artillery advantage. That is why (in large part at least) Ukraine is being forced to commit more of their artillery to the battle, which they really don't want to do. The questions are 1) does Russia have enough artillery/shells to do the job, 2) can Ukraine degrade the Russian artillery so much they can't do the job in any case, 3) how much artillery can Ukraine actually commit without "messing up" their own offensive plans, 4) will a Ukrainian offensive make continued attack into Bakhmut impossible?

Ukraine has spent a lot of their recent offensive force pushing back the Russians from their supply line into Bakhmut. This was undoubtedly their priority when they increased the troop commitment there. Russia is going real slow now, probably due to the fact they can only muster so much artillery. It might take months, but Ukraine has to counter this eventually or they will be forced out of Bakhmut. How Ukraine intends to do this is TBD, and that is the crux of the issue. It may be they will move from attacking on the flanks to attacking in the center with the troops they have. Short term, that is my guess, but it is exactly that. Long term, nobody knows, and Ukraine will keep it that way as long as possible. Lets just hope Ukraine has a plan and that it works. If they do not, it will be a problem :-).

[Goose]

All this makes sense, but it seems like the reporting is not even consistent on whether Ukraine will be able to keep Bakhmut.  NYT is saying that Russia's forces are exhausted and won't be able to take Bakhmut.  ISW is saying that Russia has taken 5% of the city in the last week, is consolidating those gains, and is positioned to take more in the near future.

Nobody really knows, because it depends on decisions that have not yet been made. Wagner is exhausted and cannot source "human wave" attacks into Bakhmut anymore. That part is pretty definite. Russia has committed "regular" infantry that is using the same tactics used in Donbas previously. Use massive artillery barrages to destroy completely a part of the city, and then advance troops into the resulting wasteland. Russia has shown this can work when they have an adequate artillery advantage. That is why (in large part at least) Ukraine is being forced to commit more of their artillery to the battle, which they really don't want to do. The questions are 1) does Russia have enough artillery/shells to do the job, 2) can Ukraine degrade the Russian artillery so much they can't do the job in any case, 3) how much artillery can Ukraine actually commit without "messing up" their own offensive plans, 4) will a Ukrainian offensive make continued attack into Bakhmut impossible?

Ukraine has spent a lot of their recent offensive force pushing back the Russians from their supply line into Bakhmut. This was undoubtedly their priority when they increased the troop commitment there. Russia is going real slow now, probably due to the fact they can only muster so much artillery. It might take months, but Ukraine has to counter this eventually or they will be forced out of Bakhmut. How Ukraine intends to do this is TBD, and that is the crux of the issue. It may be they will move from attacking on the flanks to attacking in the center with the troops they have. Short term, that is my guess, but it is exactly that. Long term, nobody knows, and Ukraine will keep it that way as long as possible. Lets just hope Ukraine has a plan and that it works. If they do not, it will be a problem :-).