[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/vote-setback-...52651.html

And the beat goes on. What happens in Türkiye is obviously important to the NATO admission of Sweden. It is also important to the "southern flank" of NATO. It is probable that Erdogan's opponent is more palatable to NATO and the US than Erdogan, but it is also probable the "new" president would have some issues with how strong their government would be. Erdogan has wielded power for a long time and that won't just disappear. Best case, their is an "orderly" transfer of power and Türkiye makes the USA look like a "banana republic" in that regard. Unfortunately, I wouldn't bet on that outcome.

I just don't see Erdogan going into an election that he thinks he will lose. There is quite a bit for time between now and May 14. There are lots of things he can do to make himself "more popular". IMO that won't be enough, but I certainly am not in a position to know. The earthquake reminded people that Erdogan had been originally elected to clean up corrupt practices and has not done so. There were lots of other issues that may have got Erdogan beat, but this issue was the "last straw" for many. Given that, does he try to postpone the election? Does he try to retain power and cancel it? Does he hold the election and falsify the result? What does the army do? In the past, despite the fact the EU and NATO didn't like it, the army in Türkiye functioned as the "adult in the room". When the politicians got it all messed up, the army would take over for a few years, get the mess sorted out, and then return power to the politicians. Erdogan has greatly reduced their ability or willingness to do that, so that safety net may not be there. It could be "interesting". I hope it isn't and a fair, honest election is held. I am not confident that will happen however.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/vote-setback-...52651.html

And the beat goes on. What happens in Türkiye is obviously important to the NATO admission of Sweden. It is also important to the "southern flank" of NATO. It is probable that Erdogan's opponent is more palatable to NATO and the US than Erdogan, but it is also probable the "new" president would have some issues with how strong their government would be. Erdogan has wielded power for a long time and that won't just disappear. Best case, their is an "orderly" transfer of power and Türkiye makes the USA look like a "banana republic" in that regard. Unfortunately, I wouldn't bet on that outcome.

I just don't see Erdogan going into an election that he thinks he will lose. There is quite a bit for time between now and May 14. There are lots of things he can do to make himself "more popular". IMO that won't be enough, but I certainly am not in a position to know. The earthquake reminded people that Erdogan had been originally elected to clean up corrupt practices and has not done so. There were lots of other issues that may have got Erdogan beat, but this issue was the "last straw" for many. Given that, does he try to postpone the election? Does he try to retain power and cancel it? Does he hold the election and falsify the result? What does the army do? In the past, despite the fact the EU and NATO didn't like it, the army in Türkiye functioned as the "adult in the room". When the politicians got it all messed up, the army would take over for a few years, get the mess sorted out, and then return power to the politicians. Erdogan has greatly reduced their ability or willingness to do that, so that safety net may not be there. It could be "interesting". I hope it isn't and a fair, honest election is held. I am not confident that will happen however.