03-20-2023, 03:27 PM
I think your framing is probably correct, with two caveats. First, I don't think Russia is equipped to do all that more after it captures Bakhmut. So, I think once that is done, it will enter an operational pause, while it tries to regroup, lets the mud dry out, and waits for the next wave of conscripts to enter the force.
Second, I think Rob Lee is probably comparing Bakhmut to a generic Russian attacks. I think another Vuhledar is unlikely, but every time that Russia tries a de novo attack, it could stumble into another catastrophe like it. From Russia's perspective, the devil it knows (Bakhmut) is likely to be less unfavorable than the ones it doesn't know.
BC
Second, I think Rob Lee is probably comparing Bakhmut to a generic Russian attacks. I think another Vuhledar is unlikely, but every time that Russia tries a de novo attack, it could stumble into another catastrophe like it. From Russia's perspective, the devil it knows (Bakhmut) is likely to be less unfavorable than the ones it doesn't know.
BC