03-17-2023, 10:52 AM
Things in Türkiye are "interesting" to say the least. After the earthquake, it is actually possible that the opposition candidate might win the election. I will believe it when I see it, but if it happens, will Erdoğan transfer power peacefully or will he try to hold on? If the opposition doesn't win (or it is said not to have won) but thinks they did win, what then? What does this mean for Sweden's membership? I think conventional wisdom was that Erdoğan would eventually give in after extracting the most he could from everybody. In the new political climate, it may be much less probable IMO. At the very least, after the election it is assumed Erdoğan will lack a majority in parliament. If that is the case, he may not be able to "back off" on his position and make it stick. If there is martial law due to election issues, it will be even messier.