[BostonCard]

The headlines in the NYT today report that Ukraine reclaimed territory near Bakhmut this weekend and that the top Ukrainian generals want to stay there. Obviously, that seems contrary to the hypothesis advanced here and most pro-western sources in the media in recent weeks. Contrary-to-conventional-wisdom developments like this continue to lead me to believe that we know extraordinarily little about the details of the war in Ukraine.

Supposedly, Wagner's Boss (Yevgeny Prigozhin) is accusing the Russian military of not providing ammunition.  There's been a bit of a pissing match between Wagner and the Russian military, though that was supposed to have been resolved.  Still, given the comments, you do wonder if this is a bit of an attempt to find a scapegoat if things don't go as planned.



I still think that the most likely outcome is that Ukraine withdraws and Russia captures Bakhmut, but your point about "contrary-to-conventional wisdom developments" is very well taken.


EDIT to add link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64859780

But Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin says his army's lack of ammunition could be "ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal".

BC

[BostonCard]

The headlines in the NYT today report that Ukraine reclaimed territory near Bakhmut this weekend and that the top Ukrainian generals want to stay there. Obviously, that seems contrary to the hypothesis advanced here and most pro-western sources in the media in recent weeks. Contrary-to-conventional-wisdom developments like this continue to lead me to believe that we know extraordinarily little about the details of the war in Ukraine.

Supposedly, Wagner's Boss (Yevgeny Prigozhin) is accusing the Russian military of not providing ammunition.  There's been a bit of a pissing match between Wagner and the Russian military, though that was supposed to have been resolved.  Still, given the comments, you do wonder if this is a bit of an attempt to find a scapegoat if things don't go as planned.



I still think that the most likely outcome is that Ukraine withdraws and Russia captures Bakhmut, but your point about "contrary-to-conventional wisdom developments" is very well taken.


EDIT to add link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64859780

But Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin says his army's lack of ammunition could be "ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal".

BC