[TrumpCard]

Bakhmut is hardly worth saving anymore given how destroyed it is. It's almost like Ukraine is only defending the territory because it is a meat grinder for Wagner (Russian) forces that it is happy to grind down.

This much has been clear for some time.  There is a slight psychological benefit to Russia from capturing Bakhmut, but Ukraine has been much better at "doing the math" about how long to bleed the Russians before withdrawing.  I think they will withdraw soon, but they've held out longer than I expected.

BC

I'm impressed that Ukraine has hung on in Bakhmut for so long, but I am not sure whose "math" to trust, and I don't have a good sense as to whether Ukraine still is benefitting from using Bakhmut as a spot for a defensive stand.  For example, the DefMon twitter account today expressed a hope that Ukraine's public statements about reinforcing the city are psyops meant to facilitate a withdrawal.  I don't have any particularly good information that others lack, but I am concerned that Ukraine may be losing soldiers without sufficient reward and that continuing this battle may allow Russia to encircle some of Ukraine's remaining troops.  Is there reason to think that Bakhmut is positioned like Popasna, such that a withdrawal by Ukraine would be a key event that would allow Russia to make significant territorial gains?  (I would hope that Ukraine has had time by now to prepare a strong second line of defense, as well as defense in depth.)

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1630994947783491605

[TrumpCard]

Bakhmut is hardly worth saving anymore given how destroyed it is. It's almost like Ukraine is only defending the territory because it is a meat grinder for Wagner (Russian) forces that it is happy to grind down.

This much has been clear for some time.  There is a slight psychological benefit to Russia from capturing Bakhmut, but Ukraine has been much better at "doing the math" about how long to bleed the Russians before withdrawing.  I think they will withdraw soon, but they've held out longer than I expected.

BC

I'm impressed that Ukraine has hung on in Bakhmut for so long, but I am not sure whose "math" to trust, and I don't have a good sense as to whether Ukraine still is benefitting from using Bakhmut as a spot for a defensive stand.  For example, the DefMon twitter account today expressed a hope that Ukraine's public statements about reinforcing the city are psyops meant to facilitate a withdrawal.  I don't have any particularly good information that others lack, but I am concerned that Ukraine may be losing soldiers without sufficient reward and that continuing this battle may allow Russia to encircle some of Ukraine's remaining troops.  Is there reason to think that Bakhmut is positioned like Popasna, such that a withdrawal by Ukraine would be a key event that would allow Russia to make significant territorial gains?  (I would hope that Ukraine has had time by now to prepare a strong second line of defense, as well as defense in depth.)

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1630994947783491605